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Bubble Tracker: 5 borderline teams in need of résumé boosts

Selection Sunday is six days away and it's needless to say bubble teams are sweating. But there's one last week of action to make a lasting impression on the NCAA tournament selection committee.


BRACKETOLOGY: Projecting the field of 68

Here's a look at what borderline teams need to do in order to earn an at-large bid to the NCAAs.


Minnesota: The Gophers (18-12, 7-10) will be a No. 7 seed in the Big Ten tournament and must win their opening-round game against Penn State and potentially a quarterfinal to secure an at-large bid. Minnesota has a strength of schedule of 5 and RPI of 51, but too many losses, including to lowly Northwestern, could be costly.


California: The Golden Bears, led by do-everything senior guard Justin Cobbs, finished in a five-way tie for third in the Pac-12. After all of the tiebreakers, they are the No. 4 seed in the tournament and will play the winner of Colorado and Southern California. They need to win that game and a semifinal potentially against Arizona to feel safe. A win against Colorado might be enough to get an at-large bid. Cal beat Arizona during the regular season, so a deep run is possible.


Arkansas: The Razorbacks (21-10, 10-8) earned the No. 5 seed in the SEC tournament and will play the winner of South Carolina and Auburn. A loss probably will push them out of the field. A win sets them up against Tennessee in a make-or-break game. To feel safe, they need to win or at least play the Vols close. A blowout similar to the game against Alabama might end their hopes of an at-large bid.



Tennessee's NCAA tournament credentials are solid but the Vols could have some work to do to secure an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.(Photo: Dak Dillon, USA TODAY Sports)


Tennessee: The Volunteers (20-11, 11-7) picked up a much-needed win Saturday against fellow bubble team Missouri. An RPI of 42 and strength of schedule of 25 make for strong NCAA tournament credentials. But Tennessee, the No. 4 seed in the SEC tournament, cannot afford a quarterfinal loss based on two résumé-staining losses to Texas A&M.


Bubble Tracker conference-by-conference breakdowns of the strength and weaknesses of borderline teams. Data as of March 10. American Athletic Conference Atlantic Coast Conference - Team résumés Atlantic 10 - Team résumés Big East Xavier: 19-11 (10-8) 48 RPI 26 SoS | The Good: Win over Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee | The Bad: Losses to USC, Seton Hall (twice) Georgetown 17-13 (8-10) 54 RPI 10 SoS | The Good: Wins over Kansas State, VCU, Michigan State, Xavier, Creighton | The Bad: Losses to Northeastern, Seton Hall (twice) Big Ten - Team résumés Big 12 Mountain West Pac-12 - Team résumés SEC - Team résumés Tennessee: 19-11 (11-7) 42 RPI 25 SoS | The Good: Win over Virginia, Xavier | The Bad: Loss to Texas A&M (twice), UTEP, Vanderbilt

St. John's: The Red Storm (20-11, 10-8) enter the Big East tourney as the No. 5 seed and face another bubble team in Providence. They need to win that game and probably beat Villanova in the semifinals to have a decent shot at an at-large bid. That's a possibility considering St. John's played Villanova close twice and has also beaten Creighton.


Others: Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney and secure the auto-bid.


Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.


TEAMS ON THE NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He's predicted for The Indianapolis Star and collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter@BracketWag.


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