NCAA tournament breakdown: Previewing Friday's Sweet 16 games

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo talks with guard Keith Appling (11) during practice for the east regional of the 2014 NCAA Tournament at Madison Square Garden. / Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports breaks down Friday's Sweet 16 action.

Michigan (27-8) vs. Tennessee (24-12) | Time, TV: 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS Why Michigan will win: The Big Ten regular season champion is exceptional in every facet offensively, making nearly 40% of its three-pointers, 53% of its shots inside the arc and 76% of its free throws. The Wolverines also don't turn the ball over very often (9.3 a game), making them one of the most efficient teams in the country. Sophomore guard Nik Stauskas (17.4 ppg) has made 13 of his last 28 attempts from three-point range, and only four times this season has he been held to single figures scoring. Though the Wolverines are young, they have a huge experience advantage from last year's run to the championship game, and John Beilein is one of the nation's best coaches with a 15-7 record in the NCAA tournament. Michigan proved against Texas in the Round of 32 they could handle a team with a significant size advantage that thrives on the offensive glass much like the Vols. Why Tennessee will win: In a tournament of matchups, the Vols present too many problems for a Michigan team that is challenged both in frontcourt size and on the defensive end. Tennessee is an average shooting team, but it grabs offensive rebounds on 40% of its misses, the fourth-highest rate in the country, and can punish Michigan physically in the paint with Jarnell Stokes (22 double-doubles this season) and Jeronne Maymon (10.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg). Tennessee also has an elite perimeter defender in 6-6 junior Josh Richardson, who will make it difficult for Stauskas to get the open looks Michigan needs to facilitate its offense. Though the seed and record don't necessarily indicate that Tennessee belongs in the Sweet 16, it has won eight of its last nine games with only a loss to No. 1-ranked Florida. History lesson: Michigan knocked Tennessee out of the 2011 NCAA Tournament in a 75-45 blowout that turned out to be Bruce Pearl's last game as the Vols' head coach. Earlier that season, Pearl served an eight-game suspension from the SEC after admitting that he misled NCAA investigators about hosting recruits at his house on their unofficial visits, a violation of NCAA rules. Did you know? Tennessee is 1-5 in Sweet 16 games, losing each one until 2010 when the No. 6 seed Vols upset No. 2 seed Ohio State 76-73. Tennessee was not able to follow that victory, however, with a trip to the Final Four, losing to Michigan State 70-69 on a free throw with 1.8 seconds remaining. â?? Iowa State (28-7) vs. Connecticut (28-8) | Time, TV: 7:27 p.m., TBS Why Iowa State will win: Because UConn doesn't have the length to handle the Cyclones' tandem of guard DeAndre Kane and forward Melvin Ejim, who have stepped up their play to help offset the loss of George Niang to a foot injury. Kane and Ejim combined for 43 points and 14 rebounds in a third-round win against North Carolina, and could find similar success against a UConn defense that allowed 70 or more points in seven of the team's eight losses. Why UConn will win: Because the Huskies have shown increased scoring balance in reaching the Sweet 16, giving the offense more punch to go with American Athletic Conference Player of the Year Shabazz Napier. Five players reached double-figures in a third-round win against Villanova, led by Napier's 25 points. But if UConn and ISU get into a shootout, the Huskies' ability to stay out of foul trouble in the front court could mean the difference. History lesson: UConn and Iowa State's one and only previous meeting came two years ago, when the Cyclones topped the Huskies, 77-63, in then-coach Jim Calhoun's final game with the program. Did you know: UConn has played more games at Madison Square Garden than any venue other than its own home court. Between conference games in the Big East and the conference tournament, UConn has played 111 games at MSG, going 59-52 overall. Virginia (30-6) vs. Michigan State (28-8) | Time, TV: 9:57 p.m. ET, TBS Why Virginia will win: Defense, defense, defense. The pack-line defense has been coach Tony Bennett's calling card everywhere he's been, and it's what drives this team this season. Sure, he's got a balanced offense filled with selfless players, too, but the key is defense. If the Cavaliers can control the tempo and the boards, they can force low-percentage shots and limit Michigan State's weapons - and win the game. Why Michigan State will win: This will be a defense-oriented slugfest, and the Spartans will have a chance to win because they've got a better offense. If Keith Appling and Gary Harris can hit shots along the perimeter and Adreian Payne gets going down low, Michigan State should be in good shape. Since Payne returned from his foot injury 14 games ago, he's averaged 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds. He scored 41 points against Delaware last weekend and could be a huge factor in this game.â?? History lesson: Michigan State's Tom Izzo coached against the father of Virginia's Tony Bennett, Dick, in the 2000 Final Four. Tony Bennett was an assistant for his father's Wisconsin team in that game. Michigan State won 53-41. Did you know? Because of injuries and illnesses, Michigan State has used 15 different starting lineups. The Spartans' five primary starters - Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Branden Dawson, Adreian Payne and Matt Costello - have all played in just 18 of 36 games this year. Louisville (31-5) vs. Kentucky (26-10) | Time, TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS Why Kentucky will win: Five months after their dazzling potential earned them preseason No. 1 honors, Kentucky's fabulous freshmen are finally getting their act together. Julius Randle had double-doubles in Kentucky's first two NCAA tournament wins, including a 13-point, 10-rebound effort against No. 1 seed Wichita State. (Randle contributed a career-high six assists, too.) Aaron Harrison isn't bad, either, averaging 18.5 points in the tournament. Why Louisville will win: Experience. Louisville returns Luke Hancock, Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell from last year's championship team. While it's true Smith irritated coach Rick Pitino last weekend - there's a reason Pitino hung the nickname 'Russdiculous' on his guard - he is a spectacular talent who can score, set up buckets and defend, and few players are more clutch in March than Hancock. Oh, the Cardinals are arguably the hottest team in the country, too, winning 14 of their last 15 games. History lesson: Are you kidding? Louisville-Kentucky is the Bluegrass State's version of the Civil War. When the teams met in the Final Four two years ago, tempers in Kentucky got so hot that patients at a dialysis center got into a fight. Seriously. The Wildcats got the best of that meeting, then went on to win their eighth national title. Overall, Kentucky has a 31-15 edge against Louisville. Did you know? Rick Pitino coached at both schools. He was at Kentucky from 1989-97, leading the Wildcats the 1996 NCAA title. After a stint in the NBA, he came to Louisville in 2001 and last year led the Cardinals to the national championship.

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