Yankees spend big and Red Sox are defending champs, but Rays are team to ...
1. RAYS (93-69)
BIG PICTURE: With the revenue-challenged Rays, it is always all about payroll and how they are continually able to do more with less. This year the payroll is expected to come in at around $77 million, the highest it's ever been, but will still rank 28th in baseball, ahead of only the Marlins and Astros. You have to credit Rays owner Stu Sternberg - in spite of having baseball's poorest attendance, he stepped up to the plate again this winter and addressed his team's needs by re-signing first baseman James Loney for three years, $21 million, taking on catcher Ryan Hanigan's three-year, $10.75 million contract after a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, signing closer Grant Balfour for two years, $12 million, and resisted the temptation to trade ace David Price.
WHY THEY'LL FINISH FIRST: With Price intact as their No. 1, the Rays continue to boast the best pitching in the division - with Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, lefty Matt Moore and their latest prodigy, Jake Odorizzi, following Price in the rotation. GM Andrew Friedman sacrificed one of their most effective power arms in the bullpen, lefty Alex Torrez, to acquire handyman Logan Forsythe - a Joe Maddon-type player if there ever was one - but shored up the relief corps with the signing of Balfour to replace Fernando Rodney. Hanigan, one of the toughest hitters in baseball to strike out (one every 10.1 ABs), led the NL in throwing out baserunners (45%) last year but spent extensive time on the DL with oblique and wrist injuries. While the Rays finished ninth in the AL in runs last year, they're confident that will improve with a full season from right fielder Wil Myers and an anticipated breakout season by center fielder Desmond Jennings.
2. ORIOLES (89-73)
BIG PICTURE: Nobody has to tell O's manager Buck Showalter it's a narrow window of opportunity for him to get to that elusive World Series with Baltimore, with his core players (shortstop J.J. Hardy after this season, catcher Matt Wieters and Chris Davis after 2015) coming up on free agency. It is why Showalter was so relieved and pleased that, after a winter of inactivity waiting for the free agent market to come to the Birds, GM Dan Duquette finally struck with his February signings of righty Ubaldo Jimenez and slugger Nelson Cruz.
WHY THEY'LL FINISH SECOND: The rotation of 16-game winner Chris Tillman, Jimenez, righty Miguel Gonzalez, soft-throwing lefty Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris isn't overwhelming, but Showalter has depth there in top prospect Kevin Gausman and lefty Brian Matusz, who showed a mastered changeup in spring training. And it's supported by the best defense in the AL. The bullpen could be an issue with AL saves leader Jim Johnson traded to the A's in a salary-dump deal. Last year's primary set-up man, Tommy Hunter, not your conventional power closer, assumes the role. There was lingering concern at the end of spring about All-Star third baseman Manny Machado's slow recovery from offseason knee surgery. Top prospect second baseman Jonathan Schoop was their best hitter in spring training.
3. YANKEES (88-74)
BIG PICTURE: The Yankees don't like finishing out of the money because it forces them to spend more money - as in 2008 when they spent $423.5 million on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, and then last winter when they doled out another $438 million on Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran. They only hope this year's outlay will result in the same World Series payday as 2009 and a dual celebration with Derek Jeter's farewell tour.
WHY THEY'LL FINISH THIRD: In 2013, the Yankees were the most-injured team in baseball, using the disabled list 28 times with 21 different players missing a total of 1,287 games - and still they managed to win 85 games to tie the Orioles for third place. One would think they couldn't possibly have anywhere close to that kind of injury plague this season which, in turn, should bode well for a big improvement in the standings. Except that, the 33.59 average age of the Yankee lineup will make it the oldest in baseball history, according to Baseball Prospectus. The additions of Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran should make for a vast improvement in the offense, which ranked 10th in the AL in runs last year, and the rotation, led by a slimmed-down Sabathia, the venerable Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Tanaka and comebacking Michael Pineda pitched well all spring. But until proven otherwise, there are major issues with the bullpen where David Robertson replaces Mariano Rivera as closer and all his setup men are question marks.
4. RED SOX (86-76)
BIG PICTURE: In winning their third world championship since 2004, the Red Sox had almost everything go right for them last season, including GM Ben Cherington's perfect 7-for-7 in successful free agent signings. And other than No. 2 starter Clay Buchholz missing most of June and July with shoulder issues, the Sox were able to stay injury-free. Inasmuch as Cherington did very little to alter the roster this winter - signing comebacking Grady Sizemore to hopefully replace Ellsbury in center field, veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and righty set-up reliever Edward Mujica - he appears to be confident the Sox will have a repeat performance this year.
WHY THEY'LL FINISH FOURTH: Even though the 31-year-old Sizemore had a vintage spring, one can't overlook the fact that he hasn't played a full season since 2008. With Ellsbury at the top of the lineup, the Red Sox led the AL in OPS last year; that's not likely to happen without him. Similarly, the 37-year-old, defensively challenged Pierzynski is a significant downgrade at catcher; no one would be surprised if the Red Sox are compelled to fast-track top prospect Christian Vazquez to Fenway this summer.
5. BLUE JAYS (72-90)
BIG PICTURE: One year after executing one of the biggest re-makes and payroll increases in their history and having nothing to show for it but a last-place 74-88 finish, the Jays did . . . absolutely nothing. GM Alex Anthopoulos has defended his inactivity with the fact that the Blue Jays' grand plan for 2013 was torpedoed by a rash of injuries.
WHY THEY'LL FINISH FIFTH: The Jays still have major rotation problems. Brandon Morrow did not pitch well in the spring, Mark Buehrle, 35, had his third-highest ERA in '13, and scouts said their best starter in the spring was 21-year-old top prospect Aaron Sanchez, who'll probably start the season at Double-A. What they need most is a breakthrough year from Drew Hutchison, who impressed this spring after missing last season with Tommy John surgery.
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