Oscars predictions: who will win, who should win

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Best Picture

'It's time.' That two-word slogan has appeared all over the campaign literature for 12 Years a Slave, reminding voters that a Best Picture win for Steve McQueen's slave-trade drama would echo far beyond the photocalls and speeches. It's a sharp tactic, but not a dishonest one: McQueen's film just feels too important, both artistically and historically, for the top prize to go anywhere else.

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Should win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Director

I've used the phrase 'feat of direction' to describe Gravity before, and it's that skin-prickling sense of a filmmaker being present in every frame and camera-movement that gives Alfonso Cuarón the clear edge in this category. That he hasn't lost a single significant directing prize this awards season also helps.

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)

Should win: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey's painfully spindly frame in Dallas Buyers Club is just the latest milestone in his ongoing career reboot. The Academy loves physically transformative performances, and he's given them one they can't ignore. I far preferred Leonardo DiCaprio, whose performance inThe Wolf of Wall Street draws on a rich tradition of corrupted American Dreamers dating back to the gangster pictures of the 1930s. But the bluster and bad language will have turned too many voters' stomachs for him to be a serious threat.

Will win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett has dominated all discussion of this category since last August, and it's true that her performance inBlue Jasmine, complex, brittle and theatrically attuned, is a terrific piece of craft. But the nominations have also worked in her favour: her rivals seem mostly to be there on name-recognition grounds, and far better work from less-established talent was overlooked.

Will win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Should win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Best Supporting Actor

Michael Fassbender towers over his rivals here, but he soured on the campaigning process after his hard work promoting Shame two years ago failed to bear fruit. It would be lovely if that kind of thing didn't make a difference, but it seems likely that Jared Leto, who's perfectly good in Dallas Buyers Club but even better at lunches and photocalls, will come out on top. Barkhad Abdi, who won the Bafta for his work inCaptain Phillips, feels like a longer shot here.

Will win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Should win: Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

Best Supporting Actress

In the Academy Awards' history, only two actresses have won Oscars back-to-back: Luise Rainer and Katharine Hepburn. If Jennifer Lawrence wins again on Sunday for her scene-stealing work in American Hustle, she'll be the third, and with the Golden Globe and Bafta already taken care-of, it looks increasingly likely. But it's Lupita Nyong'o, as 12 Years a Slave's field girl Patsey, whose performance burns itself onto your soul: it's probably too tough for voters to take, but she's the stand-out in an uneven group.

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Should win: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)