Oscar Frontrunners' Critical Weekend: What 'American Hustle,' '12 Years a Slave ...

This weekend's SAG and PGA Awards will set the tone phase two of Oscar campaigning

Oscar nominations are out, and phase two has begun. For frontrunners like 'American Hustle,' 'Gravity' and '12 Years a Slave,' and for contenders hoping to rally, that means no more parties, fewer Q&A screenings, no more wining and dining the voters.

But before the phase-two campaigning really has a chance to get rolling, the top nominees will have to make it through what might be the most important two days until Oscar weekend.

The Screen Actors Guild will present its awards on Saturday. The Producers Guild of America will follow on Sunday. And by Monday morning, we could very well have a legitimate Oscar frontrunner instead of an uneasy trifecta.

Also read: Oscar Nominations: The Complete List

Last weekend, which culminated with the Golden Globes on Sunday, was a time to party; this weekend is when we really start to figure out what's going to happen at the Dolby Theater on March 2.

For one thing, this weekend will be the first time that moviemakers, rather than critics or journalists, are giving the awards.

Remember: Three years ago, 'The Social Network' had won everything up to this point, including the top Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Movie Awards (both of which went to '12 Years a Slave' this year). But the tide turned in favor of 'The King's Speech' at the Producers Guild Awards and then at SAG a week later, and that film rolled to Oscar gold.

At stake are two coveted awards, SAG's Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture honor and the PGA's Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures.

The SAG ensemble award, as it is known, has been considered an Oscar bellwether since 'Shakespeare in Love' and 'Crash' won it at a time when they were considered Oscar underdogs. It only goes to the Oscar best-picture winner about half the time, and it favors films with large casts (sorry, 'Gravity' - no nomination for you), but it can be a crucial sign of support, as it was last year when 'Argo' was the surprise winner.

The PGA is even more important as an Oscar barometer. The near-5,000-member organization has an extremely good track record predicting Oscar winners, agreeing with the Academy for the last six years in a row and 17 times in the 24-year existence of the awards.

See photos: 17 Biggest Snubs & Surprises: Oscar Nominations 2014

More to the point, when the Academy expanded its Best Picture field from five to 10 nominees in 2009, the PGA followed suit - and it also brought in the preferential system to count final ballots in the category, making it the only guild award to share the Academy's idiosyncratic method of determining a winner.

Since it did so, the PGA's winner has gone on to win the Oscar every year - and the wins for 'The Hurt Locker,' 'The King's Speech, 'The Artist' and 'Argo' were key signs that those films had what it took to forge the consensus needed to win under a preferential count.

So for 'American Hustle,' 'Gravity' and '12 Years a Slave,' the weekend looms large. Here's the breakdown for the three big contenders:

Also read: David O. Russell on 'American Hustle' Nominations: 'You Try to Expect Nothing'

Also read: 'Gravity' Behind-the-Scenes Featurette Takes Audiences From Script to Screen (Video)

Also read: TheWrap Screening Series: The 12 Best Quotes From '12 Years a Slave' Q&A

Otherwise, the other contenders will have to hope that the two guilds spread the wealth so evenly, and so confusingly, that nobody comes out of the weekend looking like a frontrunner.

If that happens, we'll be in for a six-week free-for-all.

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