Klee: In Super Bowl rematch, odds favor Seahawks, not Broncos
SEATTLE - The Broncos were favored in the Super Bowl.
Well, not initially. But eventually. Soon after songstress Renee Fleming graced the national anthem with a voice that would put angels to sleep, the Seahawks kicked off as three-point underdogs. They left MetLife Stadium as 35-point winners.
Blame the opening snap that sailed over Peyton Manning's surprised noggin, the injury bug or the crowd noise pumped in by the 12s, who suddenly are everywhere.
Just don't blame Las Vegas. The bookmakers had it right.
'In the Super Bowl, we opened the Seahawks as a 2.5-point favorite,' said Jay Kornegay, a diehard Broncos fan who moonlights as the sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton. 'In the bookmakers' eyes, Seattle was a slightly better team.'
Here's the scary part for Broncos Country: the San Francisco 49ers also would have been favored against Denver in the Super Bowl. 'Probably more so than Seattle,' Kornegay said.
So on the Sunday the Broncos and Seahawks meet again, it's worth asking: Why does Las Vegas still like the Seahawks more than the Broncos? Because we can guess, prognosticate and opine. But Vegas knows. And the 'Hawks are five-point favorites.
'You could just see how physical they were, especially in the NFC championship game. Usually the team that wins the line of scrimmage wins the game,' said Kornegay, a 1987 Colorado State graduate and former Colorado Springs resident. 'The same is true of the 49ers. That Seattle-49er (NFC championship) game was a war. We probably would've made it higher (than 2.5 points) on the Seahawks, but we underestimated how popular the Broncos would be. The money went on the Broncos.'
There are, at the least, two certainties in the NFL: the refs hate your team, and Vegas knows. Those gold-plated casinos weren't built on winners.
Whether it's constructing NFL power rankings or simply predicting a Week 3 matchup, it's usually a good idea to trust the oddsmakers. Judging by the offseason moves of adding Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware, the Broncos saw the same shortcomings as Vegas did: the Seahawks and 49ers were the bigger, badder teams.
The team that struts off CenturyLink Field on Sunday isn't guaranteed a spot in the next Super Bowl. But it will give us the clearest answer to the question that has hovered over Colorado since that chilly night in February: Are the Broncos physical enough to survive the NFC West heavyweights?
'I haven't been this excited (for a game in his career),' defensive tackle Terrance Knighton said.
Compared to the mummified roster that limped into the Super Bowl with a long list of injuries, the Broncos are a totally different team. They have new starters at 17 positions on offense, defense and special teams. On defense, only three starters from the Super Bowl are expected to start Sunday.
Then there is Seattle's home-field advantage. The Hawks are 18-1 in their past 19 home games, a startling run of success that must contribute to Sunday's line. Right?
'Home-field advantage was worth more before all of these challenge flags,' said Kornegay. 'It's human nature for referees to be influenced by the crowd: 'It wasn't really pass interference but the roar comes and there goes the flag!' With video replay, that's not as much of a factor as it was 10, 15 years ago.'
Playing as the underdog is foreign territory for the Broncos. Denver was favored in 19 of 19 games last season. In 15 of 19 games they were favored by a touchdown, at least. This is Manning's 39th game as Denver's quarterback - and only the fourth in which Denver is the underdog, the first since Week 5 of the 2012 season (at New England).
It says here the gap between the Broncos and the Seahawks isn't as wide as the Super Bowl slam-dance made it appear. Off the top of my head, I can think of 30 other teams that wish they had been blown out in the Super Bowl.
'If we were to play the Super Bowl again, the Seahawks would be just under a field goal (favorite),' Kornegay said, and that's eight months after the New Jersey mugging.
With 43-8 still fresh on the mind and the knowledge Vegas still prefers the Seahawks to the Broncos, here's the prediction: Seahawks 24, Broncos 23.
Hey, feel good about that pick. I had the Broncos winning the Super Bowl.
Sorry, Seattle.
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Twitter: @bypaulklee
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