Scottish independence vote will be down to the wire, polls say
By
Reuters
Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond.
LONDON (MarketWatch) - With less than a week to go before learning its fate, the U.K. received new polls Friday indicating the vote to keep the union together with Scotland will be close.
Scotland will hold a referendum on whether or not to remain a part of the U.K. next Thursday, so the next six days will be hectic for both pro-secession and anti-secession activists as they strive to rally support for their causes.
The latest YouGov poll, published late Thursday, showed that 52% of potential voters were against Scotland breaking away from the U.K., compared to 48% who favor a breakup.
But figures from pollster ICM released late Friday in partnership with the Guardian showed the margin is too slim to speculate about which camp will prevail. ICM said its survey showed 42% backed the union, compared with 40% who favored Scottish independence.
The British pound plummeted earlier this week after a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times showed - for the first time - that more respondents supported Scotland leaving the U.K. The currency dropped to lows against the dollar not seen in nearly a year.
The YouGov-Sunday Times poll shocked politicians who want the union to remain intact and prompted the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group to say they plan to relocate to England if Scotland votes to leave the U.K.
The chairman of retailer John Lewis Partnership told the BBC that customers in an independent Scotland may see their costs rise for food and other goods, and oil giant BP said it believes Scottish interests in North-Sea oil 'are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom.'
Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and his top political rivals abruptly canceled their weekly question-and-answer session in the House of Commons and rushed to Scotland to talk to voters. British finance chief George Osborne offered Scotland more tax and spending powers, but once again insisted Scotland wouldn't be able to use the pound as its currency if Scottish nationalists prevail in the referendum.
Martin Gilbert, head of Aberdeen Asset Management Scotland's largest fund manager, rejected claims that a currency union wouldn't be compatible with Scotland's sovereignty. He told the Press and Journal newspaper that 'sterlingisation' - the unilateral use of the pound in Scotland but with no independent central bank or lender of last resort - 'would be a pretty good option for Scotland,' adding that an independent Scotland 'would be a big success.'
Should the referendum end in a 'yes' vote, a formal split would likely require 18 months to complete, said an analyst with RBC Capital Markets Friday.
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