49ers-Rams: 15 things to know about Week 6's MNF game - CBSSports.com
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Monday Night Football is an American institution. And because the St. Louis Rams have been one of the NFL's lowliest teams for about a decade, said institution doesn't reach The Gateway to the West very often these days.
The Rams haven't played at home on network television in prime time since they hosted the Eagles on Monday Night Football when it was still airing on ABC back in 2004. This week against the San Francisco 49ers, they'll host only their fourth prime-time game since 2008. And two of those were Thursday nighters on NFL Network.
So you'd think the city of St. Louis would be all over Monday night's matchup with a quality opponent that also happens to be a division rival. Yet four days before the game, online ticket marketplace Stubhub had 73 sets of tickets priced below $15.
For further perspective, the cheapest available tickets at face value on the team's official website are $56.
The 49ers have been to the three straight NFC championship games. Polls consistently find that they're one of the most popular teams in the NFL. And the Rams? Well, they're an NFL football team. And NFL football is the most popular thing in America that doesn't contain zombies and/or trans fats.
And yet you can't give away tickets to this game.
It doesn't help that the Rams are sort of a disaster on and off the field.
They're off to a 1-3 start in the toughest division in football and their alleged franchise quarterback, former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford, is on injured reserve, as is defensive standout Chris Long. None of it bodes well for their chances of breaking out of a decade-long playoff drought.
Off the field, it's somehow uglier. Chatter is picking up that the NFL wants to reestablish a presence in Los Angeles in the near future, and the Rams have the freedom to break from their lease any time on a stadium that is running out of money. Oh, and their owner, Stan Kroenke, recently purchased 60 acres of land at a potential site for a new venue in L.A.
Throw in the fact that when these two teams met in this very spot last year, also in prime time, the Niners crushed St. Louis 35-11, and you can begin to understand why the city is instead giving its undivided attention to its baseball team. After all, the Cardinals are playing in the NLCS for the fourth consecutive season.
But that series-which, coincidentally, is also against San Francisco-takes a break Monday night. As a result, sheer boredom could drive fans to tune in.
But there are still plenty of other good reasons to give Rams-Niners a chance. Let's elaborate on those while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Fifteen things to know...
1. Containing Colin
There's little doubt 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is both the biggest star and the most dynamic player we'll see Monday night. The fourth-year Nevada product has won 24 of his 34 career starts, including four playoff victories the last two seasons. He's not your prototypical pocket quarterback, but he's a former pitcher with a missile for an arm and game-changing ability as a runner.
Early this season, Kaepernick has more rushing yards (205) than semi-regular starting running backs Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene, Montee Ball, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Toby Gerhart, Donald Brown and Doug Martin.
So if the Rams are going to have a chance to upset San Francisco Monday night, they'll have to find a way to prevent Kaepernick from taking over the game.
Not an easy task.
The Rams have given up only eight 20-yard completions on defense this season, which entering Week 6 was the lowest total in the NFL. But because they've had their bye week and haven't been tested much through the air, they've also faced a league-low 106 pass attempts.
When you take that into account by calculating the number of 20-yard completions they've surrendered on a per-attempt basis, they move close to the middle of the pack, ranking 10th at 7.5 percent.
But what's really scary is that St. Louis has already given up seven 20-plus-yard rushes and two runs of 40 yards or more. Only the Browns have surrendered more explosive runs on a per-attempt basis this season:
This defense is allowing 4.9 yards per carry overall, which is the fifth-worst rate in the NFL. Linebackers James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree miss too many tackles and it doesn't help that they're without Long at defensive end.
Long had the experience to help with contain, which is everything when you're defending Kaepernick. Since the start of 2013, Kaep has run the ball-either by design or on scrambles-135 times, which is more than any other quarterback in football.
With Long healthy and the pass rush clicking, St. Louis did a fantastic job clamping down on mobile quarterbacks last season.
But it could be a different story this time around. Without Long, a defense that ranked third in football with 53 sacks last season is ranked dead last this year with only a single sack. Pro Football Focus ranked that 2013 pass rush second overall. In 2014, they've dropped below the middle of the pack.
More context? Dating back to the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, St. Louis is one of just four teams to record fewer than two sacks during the first four games of the season. For a 30-year period between 1977 and 2006, not a single team had a sack total that low after four games. Not one.
It's enough to cause you to wonder if head coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead are privately thinking twice about that decision to ditch Michael Sam.
However, Kaepernick is in fact flawed. He's been criticized heavily for his habits in the pocket. Only Geno Smith has held onto the ball longer than he has this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and that might have to do with the fact he struggles to see the field and go through his progressions when his first read is taken away.
He's a bit of an enigma, because his feet give him a chance to dance in the pocket long enough to find open receivers, but he's all too often focusing so much on staying alive that he's failing to jump from read to read.
That might explain why his numbers are fantastic when he actually gets throws off against the blitz...
But also why he's been sacked more frequently per dropback than every qualifying quarterback in the league except Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford...
So the big decision for St. Louis is whether to blitz or stay home. Without Long, the Rams have been sending extra rushers more than anyone else in football this season. Obviously, that overcompensation hasn't paid off.
It does seem as though it would be risky here, because if the blitz doesn't get home Kaepernick can burn you with his arm or his legs. But sometimes underdogs gotta gamble.
That's why the game of football is the ultimate chess match with human pawns. Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams knows that teams are blitzing Kaepernick less because of his improvisational skills, but he also knows his four-man rushes have been powerless this season.
Williams could gamble and send the house, or he could hope that the defensive line wakes up. If they keep it conservative and that happens, they'll have a shot here, because Kaepernick makes his mistakes when he's forced to sit back and read the opposing defense. When five or six guys are committed to the rush, that's a lot easier to do.
But if the Rams can get top corner Janoris Jenkins or surprisingly reliable rookie cover man E.J. Gaines to clamp down on those initial looks to Anquan Boldin or Michael Crabtree, they could wind up with plays like this:
Or this:
Or this from the Super Bowl:
2. What's wrong with Robert Quinn?
I have to confess, I picked Rams defensive end Robert Quinn to be the league's Defensive Player of the Year. And while his season is only 25 percent complete, Quinn's off to such a ghost-like start that it might soon be too late for the 24-year-old to turn this fourth NFL campaign into a positive one.
While the linebackers and defensive backs have to be disciplined and efficient, the reality is that St. Louis probably won't be able to steal this game if Quinn isn't a force.
Only 12 players in NFL history have recorded more sacks in a single season than Quinn did last year-the 2011 first-round pick led the NFC with 19-but he remains stuck on zero four games into 2014.
Now, without Long providing support on the opposite side of the line and with limited pass-rushing help coming from other levels, he'll be forced to go up against San Francisco left tackle Joe Staley, who is coming off what PFF deemed to be the best game of his eight-year career.
Staley was pretty much perfect against a very stout Chiefs pass rush in Week 5, giving up just a single hurry on 34 pass-blocking snaps.
Quinn hasn't been as bad as the sack total would you to believe. PFF still ranks him seventh among 51 qualifying 4-3 defensive ends in terms of pass-rushing productivity. Eventually, a guy like that is going to break through.
And it might help that while Staley's been a beast, the rest of that San Fran line has had some problems. Right tackle Anthony Davis has been hurt, and his replacement, Jonathan Martin of the bullying scandal fame, has already surrendered four sacks. And guards Mike Iupati and Alex Boone are stud run-blockers but have been shaky in pass protection.
If St. Louis can find a way to generate some quasi-consistent pressure from spots other than right defensive end-we're looking at you, William Hayes and rookie first-round pick Aaron Donald -then Quinn might be able to start spreading his wings.
3. Who is this Davis guy?
Austin Davis has stepped up for the depleted Rams.(USATSI)No, not Anthony.
Vernon?
No, no. The other one.
The third most popular dude named Davis in this game is the starting quarterback for the Rams. Chances are, if you're a casual football fan in St. Louis or even a diehard fan elsewhere, you didn't know who the hell Austin Davis was until this fall.
You might still not know who he is.
In place of the injured Bradford, the 25-year-old former undrafted free agent out of Southern Mississippi has been a pleasant surprise during what has otherwise been a depressing season for the Rams.
Some scattered thoughts and facts on one of the league's least familiar starting pivots:
Most prominent QBs from Sourthern Miss
He walked on at Southern Miss but ended up breaking Favre's records for passing yards and touchdowns.
He reminds me of Tony Romo, and not just because they're both undrafted free agents who experienced immediate success when stepping in for bigger names. Davis is an improviser. His raw skills don't blow you away, but he has a knack for finding a way to make the play. And like Romo, he has moments that cause you to wonder if he's daydreaming Walter Mitty-style. In that respect, I suppose he also sort of resembles his mentor, Favre.
Davis the good...
And Davis the bad...
- It's still too early to tell, but he could be a legitimate long-term option in place of Bradford, who has lacked consistency and may never be capable of staying healthy. How he performs against the Niners will be very telling.
- Oh, and this is Davis proposing to his girlfriend during a Southern Miss basketball game:
4. How is San Francisco still good at that defense thing?
In 2011, 2012 and 2013, the 49ers defense ranked in the top five in football in terms of both points and yards allowed. But considering the state of that unit entering the 2014 campaign, few expected them to keep that streak going.
That's because they'd be without All-Pro pass rusher Aldon Smith, who since 2011 has accounted for 36 percent of the team's sack total. The 2011 first-round pick is suspended for the first nine games of the season for violating the NFL's personal conduct and substance abuse policies. That's right, both policies.
And because they'd be without stud inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who was graded by PFF as the best all-around defensive player on the team last season. The three-time first-team All-Pro is out at least half the year as he recovers from reconstructive knee surgery.
Even with superstars like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith still kicking ass in that front seven, it's almost impossible to believe that San Francisco actually has the league's No. 2-rated defense.
The Niners also already have 10 takeaways, putting them on pace to record their highest total in that area since the 2011 season, which is amazing considering that they also lost veteran defensive backs Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown in the offseason.
How's it happening? For starters, the ageless Justin Smith (technically, he's 35) is on a tear. His snap totals and PFF grades dropped off noticeably between 2011 and 2012 and 2012 and 2013, but reports of his football death were greatly exaggerated. Among 3-4 ends, Smith has the second-highest PFF grade in the league when it comes to run defense.
Smith already has three sacks, embattled cornerback Perrish Cox already has three picks, new safety Antoine Bethea is having a career year and rookie fifth-round pick Aaron Lynch has surprised everyone with his nine pressures on only 75 pass-rushing snaps off the edge.
A lot of credit has to go to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who is getting the absolute most out of the newbies as well as former role players like Cox, Ian Williams, Dan Skuta and Michael Wilhoite.
And it's not as though the schedule has been easy on them. The Niners have already faced Dallas, Chicago and Philadelphia, all of whom ranked in the top five in the NFL in points scored last season. And in those matchups, the defense surrendered a total of just 45 points, or 15 per game.
5. The 49ers vs. the red zone
Their other two opponents, Arizona and Kansas City, also finished above the league average in terms of points allowed last season. So this D has yet to face a bad O...until now.
But this San Francisco team is far from perfect. The Niners are actually only averaging 22 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NFL. And it's not as though, Dallas, Chicago and Philly have overly difficult defenses to crack.
Their biggest problem might be their struggles in the red zone.
San Francisco has come away with six points on only 44.4 percent of its red-zone opportunities, which is the eighth-worst rate in the league. And in the last three weeks, that number's only at 40.0 percent, placing them in the bottom five.
Last year and in 2012, they were at 53 percent, which was right in the middle of the pack. That's about normal.
So why the drop-off in red-zone production this season?
Head coach Jim Harbaugh attempted to explain what happened when they went 1-for-4 in the red zone last week against Kansas City, but the jumbled excuses didn't bring a lot of clarity to the situation.
But maybe that's indicative of what the problem is. Maybe they're overthinking it all.
On their very first play in the red zone last week-a first down from the KC 18-yard line-they ran a trick play that had receiver Anquan Boldin throwing a pass to Michael Crabtree in the end zone. Crabtree appeared to be open, but Boldin isn't exactly a reliable quarterback.
The odds of making that work just aren't worth trying it in that spot, because when you fall behind in terms of down and distance that close to the end zone, it becomes a losing battle with a limited playbook.
Running back Frank Gore didn't touch the ball from that point forward and they'd settle for a field goal.
6. Remember Greg Robinson?
Greg Robinson was drafted No. 2 by the Rams in May.(USATSI)The Niners might be in their own head at this point. The key now, especially against a solid St. Louis D that has the 10th-best red-zone efficiency rating in the NFL this season, could be to keep it simple, stupid.
No? If so, you may be suffering from post-draft amnesia. It happens. We hype prospects from January (in some cases, earlier) until draft day, and then-if they aren't doing much with their new teams during the summer and fall-we sometimes forget they were ever such a big part of our lives.
Guys, Robinson was the No. 2 overall pick back in May. And I'm paid to cover this league, yet I swear I totally forgot he was an NFL player until researching this week's game. That's because the hulking offensive tackle out of Auburn has played just 10 snaps thus far this season, and only one since the opening game.
St. Louis is easing Robinson in slowly, which is so 2002 but isn't necessarily a bad strategy. Pro Bowler Jake Long is almost 30 and will likely need to be replaced in the next few years, but he's the man right now. And on the right side, Joe Barksdale has done a solid job.
But Robinson has taken plenty of snaps in the preseason and during practices at guard. And right guard Davin Joseph has the 68th-worst PFF grade among 74 players at that position. Joseph is a former Pro Bowler who signed a $1.8 million contract in the offseason, so I understand why they want to give him a full shot. But at some point, as this line continues to struggle, it might be worth seeing how the big rookie can fare as a starter.
7. Mismatch of the week: Frank Gore vs. the St. Louis front seven
Against San Francisco's jacked defensive front, that would be quite a bold move. So don't expect to see much of Robinson on Monday might. But remember, he does exist.
We've talked about that struggling front seven. As good as Donald has been early in his rookie season and as capable as Quinn is, there isn't a lot left. And you really see that when the Rams attempt to defend the run.
They've already been gashed on the ground this season by Darren Sproles, DeMarco Murray, Bobby Rainey and Cordarrelle Patterson (yes, the wide receiver). Now, it's Frank Gore.
And this is another way in which things become tricky for Gregg Williams. Kaepernick is his biggest concern, but the 49ers have made a conscious effort of late (at least outside of the red zone) to keep it on the ground and win games in the trenches.
And Gore, who is coming off his second consecutive 100-yard game despite the fact he's like 46 years old, has become the focal point.
So who do the Rams focus on? There's no easy answer, especially with the read-option in play. All I know is Gore-who is actually 31, which in running back terms might as well be 80-is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on 42 attempts the last two weeks.
It can't be a coincidence that the Niners are finally winning again.
8. Advanced stat of the week
Vernon Davis has just 9 catches this season.(USATSI)Against a Rams defense that ranks 29th in the league against the run and won't be able to focus solely on him, look for the old battering ram to hit the century mark yet again Monday night.
When it comes to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers first in football when it comes to defending tight ends. In that same area, the Rams are ranked dead last.
San Francisco limited the trendy Travis Kelce to just two catches and 15 yards last week (although Kelce did score), and Jason Witten had only two catches for 14 yards against them in the season opener. Brent Celek was shut out, and Zach Ertz and Martellus Bennett were also held in check.
This matters because the Rams have targeted tight ends Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks a combined 46 times this season. Top receivers Kenny Britt and Brian Quick are only at a combined 48 targets.
And it also matters because it looks as though the 49ers are going to get Pro Bowler Vernon Davis back just in time to pick on a St. Louis D that is apparently allergic to tight ends. Davis has missed two games due to injury this year, but he was practicing last week and is expected to play.
9. Under-the-radar stat of the week
Without him in Weeks 3 and 5, San Fran completed just three total passes to tight ends. Expect that to change against the Rams.
All this talk about the Rams and their lack of sacks, but St. Louis has quietly generated six turnovers on defense in its last three games. It's not easy to take the ball away consistently when you aren't getting a lot of pressure, but the Rams have three interceptions and three fumble recoveries this season.
Ogletree made a great play stripping DeMarco Murray from behind in Week 3, and Jenkins had a pick-six on Romo earlier that day. Gaines had a nice interception in one-on-one coverage against Jeremy Maclin last week. And back in Week 2, safety Rodney McLeod intercepted Josh McCown in the red zone.
The Rams ranked in the top 10 in the NFL with 29 takeaways last year. And while that D hasn't been quite itself this season, they can still make you pay. Kaepernick must be aware of that, especially against a corner like Jenkins.
10. Injuries to watch
Since entering the league in 2012, Jenkins is the only defensive player in the NFL who has found the end zone four times.
Both Davises (Vernon and Anthony) are hurt for San Francisco. As I mentioned, the tight end (back) has returned to practice, but the right tackle remains out with a sprained MCL.
11. Jim Harbaugh: The greatest coach ever on the hot seat
Jim Harbaugh has been at the center of trade speculation this season. (USATSI)It's somewhat fitting, though, that Chris Long is still out for the Rams. Davis and Long would have faced each other throughout the evening, and the two have a trash-talking history with each other Twitter.
At least that's what some reports indicate. Ever since rumors surfaced in February that Harbaugh maybe possibly sort of had a chance to jump from San Francisco to Cleveland, things haven't been the same between the coach and the organization. Now 'insiders' left and right are telling us Harbaugh and the team will part ways before the 2015 season.
I can see how Harbaugh might rub people the wrong way, and I understand money could be a factor here too, but we keep hearing from the horse's mouth(s) that Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke have a 'good' relationship.
So why all the doom and gloom?
Is it possible emotions have just been running high for a team that stumbled a bit out of the gate after almost always getting its way during a very successful three-year run? Winning has cured worse sports ailments than this, and this team is absolutely a Super Bowl contender despite the controversy surrounding its head coach.
When Harbaugh took over in 2011, it had been nine years since San Francisco had put together a winning season. Since then, nobody in football has won more combined regular-season and playoff games.
12. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Great coaching is too hard to find in this league. Baalke and owner Jed York can't afford to give up on Harbaugh just yet.
- In this case, because we're dealing with division rivals, recent history sort of matters. So yes, it does matter that San Fran outscored St. Louis 58-24 in two one-sided victories last season. Kaepernick had three touchdowns, zero picks and a 113.4 passer rating in those two meetings.
- However, San Francisco couldn't beat the Rams in 2012. Both meetings that year went to overtime, and both nearly ended in ties. The first game, in San Fran, finished in a tie. But Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein saved the day with a 54-yard game-winning field goal with less than a minute to play in the second matchup.
- But St. Louis has beaten San Fran only twice in their last 12 meetings dating back to 2008. The Niners lead the all-time series 64-62-3.
- The Rams have lost five straight Monday Night Football games, which is tied for the longest streak in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 49ers have cleaned up on Monday nights during the Harbaugh era:
13. But which city is cooler?
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
A small victory for San Fran, but St. Louis fared a lot better than I expected. Some pretty cool people from that city.
14. Rubbing it in
Jeff Fisher has a 15-20 record with the Rams in three seasons. (USATSI)This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 14.
I've watched the Rams closely this season, especially now. And I can't help but think they're a poorly-coached team. Lots of penalties, lots of turnovers, lots of drops, lots of screwed-up assignments and coverages. They just look lost far too often.
That has me wondering how much rope head coach Jeff Fisher has left. He hasn't been given a lot of talent to work with, but it should be noted that it's been 10 years since Fisher last led a team to a playoff victory. His record dating back to 2004 is 69-78-1.
What I'm saying is when you consider the crossroads this organization has reached at quarterback and the poor start they're off to in 2014, Fisher will inevitably be fired at some point soon.
So couldn't the team have waited to commemorate the 1999 team that beat the Tennessee Titans (who at that point were coached by Fisher) in Super Bowl XXXIV?
Nope, that's what the Rams will be doing Monday night. It's been 15 years since the Greatest Show on Turf took the league by storm, and now they're bringing back those yellow-and-blue uniforms for one night only. Kurt Warner, Dick Vermeil, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Orlando Pace will also be in the building, according to Pro Football Talk.
15. Prediction: No jet lag for the 49ers
At a time like this, why remind your coach of his most painful defeat? And why remind your fans just how good things used to be? Juxtaposing those memories with what they'll be putting on the field Monday night is just cruel.
You know that whole thing about traveling multiple time zones for games and how it often has a negative impact on one's performance? Yeah, that doesn't apply to the 49ers. Since Harbaugh took over in 2011, San Fran is 14-4 in road games in either the Eastern or Central time zone.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter . Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
Despite the fact they're located in that part of the country, the Rams are just 16-26 in those games. And during that same span, they're just 10-16 at home (and 0-2 to start this season). Against a San Francisco team that has the best road record in the NFL since 2011, that's a problem.
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