As Big Ten Declines, Homegrown Talent Flees - New York Times
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CLEVELAND - Depending on whom you ask, Jerome Baker, a senior at Benedictine High School here, is either the highest- or the second-highest-rated football prospect in Ohio from the class of 2015. He is a four-star linebacker, appraised from 36th to 72nd nationally.
Columbus is a little more than a two-hour drive from Baker's home, and his parents, Jerome Sr. and Theodora, are Ohio State fans. Baker received a recruitment flyer from the university that featured a picture of the basketball superstar LeBron James, a fellow northeast Ohioan, and a quotation: 'If I had one year of college, I would have ended up here.' A letter from Coach Urban Meyer received pride of place on the family's refrigerator.
Ohio State has won seven national titles, featured respected coaches like Paul Brown and Woody Hayes and incubated spectacular players like Jack Tatum and Eddie George. It is one of college football's most illustrious programs in one of its most illustrious conferences, the Big Ten.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Nothing transformed the A.C.C. from a sleepy basketball conference to a football power as much as the addition of Florida State, which began conference play in 1992. Since then, the Seminoles have won or shared the conference title 14 times and the national title three times. Just as important, the addition brought a top-three recruiting state into the conference. A member of the A.C.C. for most other sports, Notre Dame remains an independent in football. But it will begin playing multiple A.C.C. games a season, starting this year, further lending its prestige and national recruiting network to the conference. (Newest members in bold.)
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia
Wake Forest
In the 20 years before Penn State began Big Ten play in 1993, the Nittany Lions won two national titles to the conference's zero. In the 20 years before Nebraska began conference play in 2011, the Cornhuskers won three national titles to the conference's two. Four Big Ten states are among the 10 most populous, but according to Scout.com, only one (Ohio) is in the top 10 in producing N.F.L. draft picks over the last three years.
Texas' Longhorn Network is a major reason this conference lacks its own network and lost Nebraska, Missouri and Texas A&M, a fact that is especially painful as the Aggies, now of the SEC, are outrecruiting the four Texas universities here.
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahama
Oklahoma State
Possibly even deeper than the SEC, several universities - notably Southern California, Oregon and Stanford - hired stellar coaches and let them ride sunny climes and California's recruiting pool to success. The pesky midmajor Boise State was beating some of the conference's top teams and poaching from their talent pools. The solution? Before this season, Washington lured its coach, Chris Petersen, with a five-year, $18 million contract.
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
U.C.L.A.
U.S.C.
Utah
Washington
Washington State
Georgia and Michigan have almost equal populations, but Georgia produces more than 2.5 times as many Division I players and more than three times as many N.F.L. first-round picks. Leaving aside the head coach's salary, 10 of the 25 programs that pay their coaching staffs the most are in the SEC. Only three are in the Big Ten.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Texas' Longhorn Network is a major reason this conference lacks its own network and lost Nebraska, Missouri and Texas A&M, a fact that is especially painful as the Aggies, now of the SEC, are outrecruiting the four Texas universities here.
Nothing transformed the A.C.C. from a sleepy basketball conference to a football power as much as the addition of Florida State, which began conference play in 1992. Since then, the Seminoles have won or shared the conference title 14 times and the national title three times. Just as important, the addition brought a top-three recruiting state into the conference. A member of the A.C.C. for most other sports, Notre Dame remains an independent in football. But it will begin playing multiple A.C.C. games a season, starting this year, further lending its prestige and national recruiting network to the conference. (Newest members in bold.)
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahama
Oklahoma State
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia
Wake Forest
Possibly even deeper than the SEC, several universities - notably Southern California, Oregon and Stanford - hired stellar coaches and let them ride sunny climes and California's recruiting pool to success. The pesky midmajor Boise State was beating some of the conference's top teams and poaching from their talent pools. The solution? Before this season, Washington lured its coach, Chris Petersen, with a five-year, $18 million contract.
In the 20 years before Penn State began Big Ten play in 1993, the Nittany Lions won two national titles to the conference's zero. In the 20 years before Nebraska began conference play in 2011, the Cornhuskers won three national titles to the conference's two. Four Big Ten states are among the 10 most populous, but according to Scout.com, only one (Ohio) is in the top 10 in producing N.F.L. draft picks over the last three years.
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
U.C.L.A.
U.S.C.
Utah
Washington
Washington State
Georgia and Michigan have almost equal populations, but Georgia produces more than 2.5 times as many Division I players and more than three times as many N.F.L. first-round picks. Leaving aside the head coach's salary, 10 of the 25 programs that pay their coaching staffs the most are in the SEC. Only three are in the Big Ten.
Almost every pundit predicted Baker, 17, would become a Buckeye. But this summer, when he made his oral commitment, he said, referring to his team's mascot, 'This Bengal, next fall, will be a future Gator,' and slipped on a Florida visor.
Baker is both a symptom and a cause of an undeniable fact of the sport's landscape: The Big Ten is not what it used to be.
Through the first five weeks of the season, Big Ten teams are 6-11 against the other major conferences and 4-9 against out-of-conference teams in ESPN's Football Power Index top 50. Indiana lost to Bowling Green. Minnesota was crushed by Texas Christian. Michigan was roundly defeated by Utah at home in a game that the Wolverines paid the Utes $1 million to play.
Big Ten teams won only one title during the 16-year Bowl Championship Series era (Ohio State 2002) and have captured only one other national title since 1971 (Michigan 1997). Penn State won two titles and Nebraska won three titles in the past four decades, before joining the conference. The Big Ten's relative decline could be further exposed this season because the College Football Playoff will feature only four teams, meaning at least one major conference will be left out. If the season ended tomorrow, and the playoff were determined by The Associated Press poll, the Big Ten would be the only major conference without a representative.
The Big Ten's slide is a byproduct of an even more undeniable (and much-documented) fact: The Southeastern Conference, which won seven consecutive B.C.S. championships, towers over college football like a colossus.
'It was 2010,' Baker said. 'Auburn. Cam Newton - Heisman year. That was the year I knew the SEC is where it's at.'
It is not just that the South has risen, though. For decades, the Big Ten's meal ticket was players from the states of conference members. Ohio was the mother lode, producing talent like Archie Griffin (Columbus), Desmond Howard (Cleveland) and Charles Woodson (Fremont). But increasingly, the Midwest's young are restless. The region is producing fewer Jerome Bakers, and its Jerome Bakers are less inclined to play there.
This season, the Big Ten expanded eastward to include Maryland and Rutgers, in part because the conference worried about its geographic footprint.
On Sept. 6, the Big Ten had one of its worst showings in recent history: Michigan was shut out by Notre Dame, Michigan State was outplayed by Oregon, Ohio State was upset by Virginia Tech, and Northwestern and Purdue lost to teams from the Mid-American Conference. Only a week later, Commissioner Jim Delany went to New Jersey to spread Big Ten pride and preside over Rutgers's first conference game.
'The facts are the facts,' Delany said before the Scarlet Knights lost, 13-10, to Penn State. 'We had years where we competed very successfully against the SEC, probably to 2005 and 2006.'
He added: 'Is it a cycle? Maybe. Is it a trend? Yeah, it's a trend.'
A Steady Decline
If you put the Big Ten's DNA under a microscope, it might look like the familiar pebbled brown leather of a football. The conference's universities are mainly responsible for taking an obscure rugby knockoff played by East Coast preps and spreading it across the country. (Michigan's team taught Notre Dame how to play the game.) Its fight songs, stadiums and mascots are iconic.
On Aug. 30, Wisconsin, now the second-highest-ranked Big Ten team at No. 17, lost to Louisiana State, now the sixth-highest-ranked team in the SEC West at No. 15.
The Big Ten debacle on the second Saturday of this season was the first time Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State all lost on the same day since 1988, according to ESPN. There were extenuating circumstances: Ohio State was without its star quarterback because of a season-ending injury, and Michigan State was playing on the road against the national title contender Oregon. But the results crystallized a sense of malaise.
'When things don't go your way competitively, the most important thing to reinforce is we're going to do things the right way,' Delany said. 'We're not going to change our standards. We want kids who are admissible, who want to be there, who want to get an education.'
Analysts point to several explanations for the Big Ten's decline, among them: the delayed adoption of the hurry-up, pass-heavy offenses that others favor; a succession of mediocre coaches; and even players' preference for warmer locales.
Two of the conference's marquee programs, Ohio State and Penn State, had to deal with sanctions imposed by the N.C.A.A. A third, Michigan, 2-3 this season, has been in a downward spiral. One coach, Rich Rodriguez, was seen as not enough of a Michigan Man, and his successor, Brady Hoke, an undeniable Michigan Man, seems unable to keep his team competitive.
Big Ten universities frequently pluck coaches from mid-major programs. Wisconsin's Gary Andersen came from Utah State, Minnesota's Jerry Kill from Northern Illinois. By contrast, two of the SEC's most accomplished coaches, Nick Saban and Les Miles, had stints at Michigan State and Michigan before eventually ending up at Alabama and Louisiana State.
After the 2012 season, Coach Bret Bielema left Wisconsin for Arkansas. He said the Razorbacks almost doubled his assistants' salaries, an area in which Big Ten programs outside Ohio State and Michigan lag.
Probably the Big Ten's biggest obstacle is that its members' states do not produce top football players the way they used to. It is no coincidence that the Big Ten had postwar glory years, when the Midwest thrived on the back of the auto industry. The Rust Belt and the decline of Big Ten football are not unrelated.
Today, Texas and Florida each produce more than twice as many Division I football players as Ohio does, per Scout. com. In the last three classes, according to ESPN, the Big Ten's 11 states produced six five-star recruits. Florida alone produced 11.
Josh Helmholdt, who covers Midwest recruiting for Rivals.com, said: 'I always hear that a four-star in the Midwest is not as good as a four-star in Florida. That's wrong. They're every bit as good. The Midwest just doesn't have enough of them.'
An instructive comparison is Michigan and Georgia. In 1960, Michigan had twice Georgia's population; in 1990, it was nearly one and a half times as big; today, their populations are roughly equivalent. Over the past eight years, according to Scout.com, Georgia has averaged 169.3 recruits per year to Michigan's 64.1. In the last three N.F.L. drafts, 51 players from Georgia were selected, while only 16 from Michigan were. (In the first rounds of those drafts, the SEC had 33 players selected; the Big Ten nine.)
'Can the Big Ten compete?' Mike Farrell, Rivals' national recruiting director, wrote recently. 'My simple answer is this: only if it recruits in the Southeast.'
The Right Fit
Jerome Baker has deep ties to his community, the Central neighborhood of Cleveland, an area once populated largely by European immigrants and later mainly by African-Americans who had migrated from the South. The track and field superstar Jesse Owens graduated from the same high school as Baker's father and many members of Men of Central, a mentoring program that Baker's father runs. (Owens went on to star at Ohio State.)
Baker, who wants to study computer science, is soft-spoken but self-assured. His hairstyle pays homage to Tupac Shakur's in the 1992 film 'Juice.' At 6 feet 1 inch and 210 pounds, he does not stand out physically, except for his neck, which is as thick as a sturdy tree trunk.
'He's so athletic and rangy,' Rivals' Helmholdt said. 'He's an outstanding physical specimen with well-above-average athletic tools, and he's able to transfer that over to the field.'
What makes Baker's decision to head south such a big blow is that Ohio State possessed the built-in advantage of geographic proximity, which remains an asset in recruiting. Many football players wish to remain in the same part of the country so their parents can attend games and they can play for the teams they grew up rooting for.
Yet in the class of 2014, Illinois's top recruit went to L.S.U., and Iowa's went to Alabama. In the class of 2013, SEC and Atlantic Coast Conference programs poached premier prospects from Indiana and Pennsylvania, and Maryland's top recruits went to Virginia Tech and Southern California. By contrast, Texas' best went to Texas A&M, Louisiana's to L.S.U., California's to Southern California and Virginia's to Virginia.
Dan MacLean, a successful coach at Detroit Country Day, said that in the past five years, he has seen heightened interest in, and from, programs farther outside Michigan. He recently sent players to Stanford and Texas Tech.
'Going back 10, 20 years ago, this was pretty much Big Ten country - and Notre Dame,' he said.
During spring break of Baker's junior year, he spent a few days in Gainesville, Fla., on an unofficial visit. He liked Coach Will Muschamp's defensive-mindedness and tough-love approach and appreciated that Muschamp made time for Baker around Easter. He also meshed with the players.
Baker said he liked that his lead recruiter, the defensive coordinator and linebackers coach D. J. Durkin, spoke honestly with him, saying that if Florida had another poor season after going 4-8 in 2013, the coaching staff might not look the same. Joe Schaefer, Baker's coach at Benedictine, had played for Durkin at Bowling Green and vouched for Durkin.
The SEC sold excellence. The Big Ten sold tradition.
'I love tradition,' Baker said. But, he continued, 'I know in my heart I can make it to the N.F.L. - that's my dream since I was a little kid. I don't want any questions of, 'You went to the Big Ten?' There's not that many teams that are good in the Big Ten anymore.
'I wanted to say that I played against great backs every game. I wanted the challenge. It was a test of myself, my pride. And the SEC is the biggest test.'
Opportunity to Rebound
Baker is not yet the new normal. Ohio's other top prospect, linebacker Justin Hilliard of Cincinnati's St. Xavier, has committed to Ohio State.
'I think it's still Big Ten territory,' said Chuck Kyle, the longtime coach of St. Ignatius, a high school football powerhouse in Cleveland. 'Notre Dame's going to get their share, Ohio State's going to get their share, Michigan's going to get their share.'
Financially, the Big Ten is robust, and over time, money and expansion should translate to wins. It has a billion-dollar deal with ABC/ESPN as well as its own network, a joint venture with Fox, which was the first of its kind when it debuted in 2007. Forbes recently rated the Big Ten the most valuable conference, saying it collected $318 million in one year from television deals, bowl games and N.C.A.A. tournament payouts.
By 2017, the Big Ten will negotiate a new national television deal, and Delany has told trustees that they could see payouts for each member reach $40 million.
'We've got great programs with terrific followings,' Delany said. 'Integrated rivalries, integrated markets, new markets.'
Delany, who became the Big Ten commissioner in 1989, said he expected the expansion to Maryland and New Jersey to build interest and help recruiting.
The Northeast is a hub for Big Ten alumni. Delany said the city with the largest concentration of alumni after Cleveland was Washington. Maryland hosts its first Big Ten game Saturday against Ohio State.
The Big Ten Network president, Mark Silverman, said half a million alumni live in the Northeast.
'By expanding,' he said, 'we can plant the flag and say, 'This is Big Ten territory.' '
'Rutgers and Maryland are the catalyst,' he added. 'They might be the spark. But the timber and the wood that's going to grow the fire are the Big Ten alums.'
Ohio State and Meyer have not given up on Baker, who could still renege on his commitment to Florida before February. In a letter to Baker's mother written after her son committed to the Gators, Meyer wrote, 'You will always have a home with the Buckeyes!'
Baker spent a recent weekend on an unofficial visit to Ohio State - it helped that Benedictine played a Friday game in Columbus - and still has official visits planned to Florida, Ohio State, Tennessee and possibly Michigan State.
But Baker and his father insisted he had made up his mind.
'I'm an Ohio State football fan, and of Urban Meyer's from a leadership perspective,' Baker Sr. said. But, he added: 'My son is a very intelligent person. He feels so secure knowing that whatever happens, his father's going to support it.'
When Baker made his announcement on the sun-filled morning of July 11, his only fear was the backlash he might receive on social media afterward. He need not have worried. By the time he got home, everyone was talking about someone else: LeBron James had just announced he was coming home to Ohio.
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