China's Growth Gut Check
VOL. 129 | NO. 211 | Wednesday, October 29, 2014
The Worldly Investor
The global economy is a symphony of regional and local economies interconnected by trade, interest rates and currency movements. We can generalize the influence of our leading instrumentalists in the following ways.
China generates the world's growth. The U.S. sets the world's interest rates. Europe and Japan export policy and price instability. Recently the market upgraded concerns over Europe's deflationary influence and subsequently downgraded expectations for U.S. Fed rate hikes.
This interplay between European weakness and U.S. central bank policy roiled market participants caught overestimating growth, inflation and interest rate prospects. Although the quick sharp sell-off enticed technical buyers, firmer support requires more fundamental underpinnings. Last week's third-quarter GDP report from the globe's growth bellwether would provide the data for debate. A disappointing report from China would enflame global growth concerns. An encouraging report would salve fractured sentiments and redirect attention toward corporate earnings releases in the U.S.
The Envelope Please ... The Chinese economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter, slightly above analyst expectations. While the growth rate has squarely slowed from the 10 percent-plus rates we became accustomed to in the past, most of the deterioration has to do with scale.
The Chinese economy is approximately $10 trillion. A growth rate of 7 percent indicates absolute growth of $700 billion. For comparison, the United States economy is approximately $17 trillion. A growth rate of 2 percent indicates absolute growth of $340 billion.
Whether the Chinese economy grows by 7.2 percent or 7.4 percent is largely irrelevant as the incremental growth numbers are huge. The cooling real estate market accounts for the bulk of the deceleration with real estate activity expected to subtract 1.4 percent from GDP this year, according to Nomura.
However, the central government orchestrated this slowdown and appears comfortable that it is cyclical and not structural. While the media focuses on the government's 7.5 percent growth target, Beijing set other important targets including 10 million new jobs and an inflation rate below 3.5 percent. Calls for broad based stimulus to boost the growth rate up to 7.5 percent will likely go unanswered as China has already hit the 10 million new job target and inflation is contained.
Overall, the report depicted a healthy Chinese economy that further discredits exaggerated rumors of economic collapse. With Chinese growth in check, investors promptly turned attention back to U.S. earnings releases.
More than 300 U.S. companies within the S&P 500 have reported third-quarter results. Of those, 65 percent have beaten profit estimates while 50 percent have beaten revenue estimates. Earnings may eclipse 5 percent growth for the quarter overall, well exceeding preseason estimates. Companies continue to execute admirably, grinding out further profit margin expansion while waiting for the revenue sails to fill. While global growth expectations for 2015 have diminished in recent weeks, growth in 2015 should still outpace growth in 2014. With China and the U.S. solidly contributing, any improvement in the European economy or evidence of bolder policy assistance would certainly rejuvenate spirits, earnings expectations and stock prices worldwide.
David Waddell, who is regularly featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Forbes, as well as on Fox Business News and CNBC, is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.
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