NFL draft: who will be No 1 pick? Manziel? Bridgewater? Bortles?
It ought to be the easiest decision in the world: Holding the first overall pick in May's NFL Draft, the Houston Texans need not worry about which players will be available, nor try to second-guess what other teams are thinking. Instead they can simply identify the most gifted individual in this year's class and take him.In reality, things are a little less straightforward. Like most teams in their position, the Texans find themselves juggling a number of different considerations. Should they simply take the best player at any position? Given the struggles of Matt Schaub and TJ Yates last season, would they not be better off using this opportunity to draft a quarterback, even if they have another athlete graded higher? And if they were to opt for a signal caller, which one should it be?None of these questions have simple answers. In a year when there has been no consensus among analysts over the No1 pick, the Texans have plenty of options, but very little certainty. So it was that general manager Rick Smith informed journalists at the Scouting Combine that his staff was 'still in the process of ranking and evaluating'. Head coach Bill O'Brien went further, saying that the team had not even got so far as narrowing their list down to a top five. That may have been a bluff, of course, but either way Houston would have the opportunity to examine their options a little more closely over the weekend. Although many sections of the Combine are televised - the running, leaping, lifting and positional drills - the truth is that some of the most important processes take place behind closed doors. Teams that have already studied players endlessly on tape might be less interested to know how fast a given prospect can change direction than to see how they perform in a one-on-one interview, or how their body holds up to the barrage of medical tests they are subjected to on the morning after their arrival.For that reason it is always important to take all impressions of a player's Combine performance with a pinch of salt, since we are seeing only one part of the overall picture. It is also true that teams will have further opportunities to evaluate the most sought-after individuals at private pro days on college campuses over the coming weeks. But it is still fair to say that we know more about this draft class now that the Combine is over than we did before it began. And while O'Brien might not have whittled his list down this far just yet, the following four individuals look more and more like the most obvious candidates for the Texans' first overall pick:
Johnny Manziel, quarterback, Texas A&M
At least one man has no doubts about who the Texans should take. Manziel told the Houston Chronicle earlier this month that the team would be making 'the worst decision they've ever made', if they fail to select him with the No1 pick, noting that he could easily fall to their division rivals Jacksonville two spots later. 'I'd be in the same division playing against them twice a year,' he continued. 'Sorry, but you just turned that chip on my shoulder from a Frito into a Dorito.'Of course, there will be those who perceive the former Johnny Football - he is trying to distance himself from that nickname these days - as arrogant, citing the reputation he made for partying his way through college as evidence of a lack of maturity. It has been the player's challenge over the last few days to convince teams he has grown up since then, no doubt saying to them, as he did to MMQB.com's Peter King, that 'my Mom always told me, 'There's a time and a place for everything'.' Manziel, who threw for 63 touchdowns and rushed for 30 more in his two years as a starter at Texas A&M, chose not to partake in passing drills at the Combine, waiting instead for his pro day, but turned heads with his performance in speed and agility tests, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in the 40-yard dash with a time of 4.68 seconds. A Texas native, he would certainly be a popular choice with Houston's fans, but many scouts consider him to be the high-risk choice among this year's top quarterback prospects. Despite Russell Wilson's success with Seattle this year, concerns remain over Manziel's size - he measured in at 5ft 11 3/4ins - and durability as well as off-field questions.
Teddy Bridgewater, quarterback, Louisville
Of course, Manziel is not the only player with faith in his own abilities. 'No doubt. I feel that I'm the best quarterback in this draft,' said Bridgewater during his media session at the Combine. 'I'm not just going to sit up here and just say it. Obviously, actions have to back up these words and I'm just confident in myself, my capability to be able to play this position and I'm just going to go out there and prove that I'm the best guy.'Bridgewater did not run or throw in Indianapolis, but made a statement nevertheless when he stepped onto the scales - weighing in at 214lbs, nine heavier than his playing weight had been at Louisville. Analysts had previously raised questions about whether the quarterback's skinny frame could hold up against the sort of punishment he was likely to take in the pros.The player himself noted that he had played at a significantly higher weight before arriving at Louisville, but said that jaw surgery in his sophomore year was to blame for him dropping a significant chunk of his muscle mass. 'I couldn't eat for two months, and that was a period when I lost most of my weight,' he explained. 'So I just want to get back to that range, 220, 225 range, and just feel good.'After choosing not to participate in drills at the Combine, Bridgewater will need to perform well at his pro day to reassure scouts that this additional weight has not had any adverse effects. But for now many consider him to be the safest choice at quarterback for Houston - a consistently accurate passer who completed 71% of his throws on the way to 31 touchdowns and just four interceptions last season.
Blake Bortles, quarterback, Central Florida
With Manziel and Bridgewater opting not to throw, it was Bortles who emerged as the stand-out performer during Sunday's quarterbacking drills at Lucas Oil Stadium. A prototypical pocket passer who measured in at 6ft 5ins and 232lbs, the UCF player had been dismissed in some quarters as too raw to merit the first overall pick, but won admirers with the consistency of his mechanics while throwing to unfamiliar receivers.The simple fact of his willingness to take part might also have impressed some teams. 'I believe that I can compete with any guy here, and that's why I'm doing everything I'm doing,' said Bortles beforehand. 'That's why I'm throwing, that's why I'm running, doing all this stuff. Why wait until your pro day when you have an opportunity to make your first impression here in Indianapolis?'It has been suggested that Bortles' height and powerful arm would make him a good fit in O'Brien's offense, although the coach himself played down such talk in Indianapolis. 'There's no way that you just label yourself [and say] 'you like this type of quarterback over this type of quarterback',' O'Brien said. 'In my career, I've been around quarterbacks that were 6ft 5ins and quarterbacks that were 5ft 10ins. We're just looking for the best fit at any position.'
Jadaveon Clowney, defensive end, South Carolina
Defensive end is hardly Houston's biggest area of need, but there is a school of thought that says that Clowney is the single most valuable player in this draft. He certainly thinks so himself, telling reporters on Saturday that he would 'of course' tell the Texans to take him. 'That's one of my goals here, to go No1,' said Clowney. 'I came out of high school as the No1 player [in the country], so I want to come into the league as the No1 guy.'Clowney certainly did his chances no harm at the Combine, posting a 4.53sec time in the 40-yard dash and perhaps even more impressively covering the first 10 yards of that sprint in just 1.56sec. For a player who stands 6ft 6ins and weighs 266lbs, those numbers are extraordinary. As ESPN.com noted: 'The five-year combine averages among wide receivers are 4.54 in the 40, with a 1.58 10-yard split. And their average size was 6-foot, 202 pounds.'Perhaps more poignantly, the defensive end had been faster than not only Manziel but also the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton before him. It will be a rare quarterback indeed who is capable of eluding Clowney on the field through speed alone. But as impressive as Clowney's times were, could they really be enough to justify Houston spending a No1 pick on him? Defensive end is hardly a pressing need, and although the prospect of him lining up at opposite ends of the line from JJ Watt is an enticing one, it is also true that the aspiring rookie had a deeply disappointing final season in college, recording just three sacks - 10 down on his sophomore year. Analysts have questioned his work ethic and passion for the game, charges that might not be reflected in the Combine weekend's numbers, but will most certainly form a part of Houston's deliberations.
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