After the Tailgate: Race for final College Football Playoff spot could be battle ...
A spot on the College Football Playoff committee might seem like a dream for most, but difficult decisions could be brewing from several angles before the field of four is announced Dec. 7. Let's preface this discussion knowing four weeks remain until the national semifinals are announced. With that out of the way, let's do our best to forecast. The path seems clear for Florida State, now 9-0 with its last road game of the year on Nov. 15 vs. the Miami Hurricanes. Two home games with Boston College and Florida close out the regular season, then it's the ACC championship game. Barring a huge upset, pencil the Seminoles in for one spot in the playoff. In the Pac-12, it's looking like a showdown in the league's championship game between Oregon (9-1) and Arizona State (8-1). The Ducks are a lock for the Pac-12 title game with games vs. league doormats Colorado and Oregon State left on their schedule. The Sun Devils (5-1 in the Pac 12) can't afford a slip-up with games against Oregon State, Washington State and a biggie at Arizona to close out the regular season. The Ducks are in the driver's seat, but if Arizona State wins out, the Sun Devils will get serious CFP consideration. CBS announcer Gary Danielson had an appropriate line in the Nov. 8 Alabama-LSU game when he said, 'The only thing that might stop the SEC West is the SEC West.' SEC West teams are beating each other up. Auburn learned that the hard way, losing to three-loss Texas A&M on Nov. 8. If it continues, and a two-loss champ emerges from the country's top conference, the committee's decision could be really difficult. That type of discussion would be eliminated if Mississippi State (9-0) wins out, but its three-game slate includes road games at Alabama (No. 15) and at Ole Miss (Nov. 29). Besides its games vs. the Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide (8-1) hosts Auburn on Nov. 29. A scenario in which Mississippi State loses to Alabama and Ole Miss, then the Crimson Tide loses to Auburn would create a gigantic mess in the SEC West. If the above happens, and Ole Miss beats Arkansas and Mississippi State, and Auburn wins its final two SEC games (beginning Nov. 15 at Georgia), it would create a four-way logjam of teams 6-2 in the SEC West and 10-2 overall. And that would be before the SEC championship game is even played. The feeling here is a two-loss SEC champion, should it play out that way, would be good enough for a CFP spot, setting up a frantic race for the last spot. Enter Ohio State, which has a clear path to the Big Ten championship game, and the winner of the Big 12, most likely either Baylor or TCU. The Buckeyes jumped back into the mix with their impressive 49-37 win at Michigan State. Dogging OSU is its nonconference loss to Virginia Tech, which hasn't helped Coach Urban Meyer's team with a 2-5 mark since it won in Columbus. Another factor is the declining strength of the Big Ten. OSU's win over the Spartans was its first win against a top 10 regular-season opponent since 2006. However, there are a few opportunities for the Buckeyes to strengthen their case. Up next is another road game at 7-2 Minnesota on Nov. 15. They close the season with home games against Indiana and Michigan. Win out, and OSU will likely face the winner of the Nov. 15 Nebraska at Wisconsin game in the Big Ten title game. The Big 12 is shaping up as a two-team race between Baylor and TCU. How the CFP committee values a head-to-head result vs. a body of work will likely be determined if the Bears and Horned Frogs each finish 11-1. Baylor (8-1) has home games vs. Oklahoma State and Kansas State and a neutral-site game vs. Texas Tech. Like Ohio State, the Bears' nonconference slate of SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo isn't helping. What will help is their 61-58 win over TCU on Oct. 11. That's the only blemish on the Horned Frog's schedule, but their nonconference schedule of Samford, Minnesota and SMU isn't a whole lot better than Baylor's. TCU closes with games against Kansas, Texas and Iowa State, and it really needs Kansas State (7-2) to upset Baylor on Dec. 6. Barring upsets and some help from the SEC (as in a second team not gaining a spot in the CFP), it's looking like Baylor, TCU and Ohio State will be one-loss teams vying for the final spot in the CFP. If that happens, advantage Buckeyes, who would be playing in the Big Ten championship game. The Big 12 doesn't have a championship game, and could face the possibility of co-champions in 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor.Top 10 1. Florida State 9-0 2. Mississippi State 9-0 3. Alabama 9-1 4. Oregon 8-1 5. Baylor 8-1 6. TCU 8-1 7. Arizona State 8-1 8. Ohio State 8-1 9. Nebraska 8-1 10. Auburn 7-2Heisman watch 1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon 2. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State 3. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State 4. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 5. Trevon Boykin, QB, TCUTop games Nov. 11 Akron at Buffalo, 7 (ESPNU) Toledo at Northern Illinois, 7 (ESPN2) Nov. 12 Kent State at Bowling Green, 7 (ESPN2) Nov. 15 Ohio State at Minnesota, noon (WEWS) John Carroll at Mount Union, 1:30 Nebraska at Wisconsin, 3:30 (WEWS) Northwestern at Notre Dame, 3:30 (WKYC) Mississippi State at Alabama, 3:30 (WOIO) Auburn at Georgia, 7:15 (ESPN) Florida State at Miami (Fla.), 8 (WEWS) Arizona State at Oregon State, 10:45 (ESPN)
About the Author
Mark's an Ohio State graduate who's been with The News-Herald since 1996. He enjoys exercising, reading, writing, cooking, spending time with his family and college football. Reach the author at mpodolski@news-herald.com or follow Mark on Twitter:@mpodo.
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