What's left for the College Football Playoff contenders
UCLA's 21-point loss to Stanford on Friday cost the Bruins the Pac-12 South title, a chance to win the league championship and a 10th win. It also effectively erased any chance the Bruins had at being a two-loss College Football Playoff contender.
The numbers of real contenders are dwindling. Let's look at what they have to do between now and Dec. 7 to be one of the four teams to make the inaugural Playoff.
THE FAVORITES Alabama | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 1 | Record: (10-1)
Because it is not the only one-loss team in the SEC West, the Crimson Tide needs to win to win today to assure its spot in next week's SEC Championship. In order to eliminate any doubt about its Playoff worthiness, it also needs to win the SEC Championship in Atlanta against Missouri on Dec. 6. A two-loss team is going to have iffy credentials. A two-loss team without a conference title to its credit may not have a great case compared to other teams.
FOOTBALL FOUR: Oregon | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 2 | Record (10-1) Rating and debating college football and the Playoff Florida State | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 3 | Record (11-0)
The Ducks need to win the Civil War today at Oregon State and beat Arizona - the only team to defeat the Ducks this season - on Dec. 5 in the Pac-12 Championship. If Oregon loses either game, it's highly unlikely the Pac-12 will have one the four playoff teams.
The Playoff selection committee downgraded the FBS' lone unbeaten team to No. 3 on Nov. 11, and it hasn't promoted the Seminoles since. But it also hasn't downgraded them farther. And with the team's record, regardless of how the team has looked in games, it doesn't appear the committee can. Florida State needs to win today vs. Florida and in the ACC Championship on Dec. 6 vs. Georgia Tech. Neither is an easy task, but if the Seminoles win out, they're no worse than the No. 3 seed. The question is what happens if they lose one of these two games. It would not be unreasonable to think, based on what they committee has suggested with their ranking of the Seminoles so far, that FSU could be left out of the Playoff with just one loss on its résumé.
THE JOSTLERS Mississippi State | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 4 | Record (10-1)
Florida State's Dalvin Cook(Photo: Melina Vastola, USA TODAY Sports)
TCU | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 5 | Record (10-1)
The Bulldogs can win today at Mississippi and still not have a chance to play for their conference championship. If Alabama wins, it represents the SEC West instead of Mississippi State. Which raises a question: Every other team on this list is playing next weekend. Would the committee reward the one team that is not? We might find out the answer to that question on Dec. 7. But it won't even need to be asked if the Bulldogs don't win today.
Ohio State | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 6 | Record (10-1)
The Horned Frogs' résumé is almost complete. All that remains is beating Iowa State on Dec. 6. TCU has put in the work and has the results to show for it - except for one: a three-point loss at Baylor, the No. 7 team on this list. The committee clearly values TCU's 23-point win earlier this season vs. surging Minnesota. But the biggest question is, if it comes down to TCU and Baylor for the final spot in the Playoff and each team has one loss, will the committee not only ignore the head-to-head result, but also the fact that Baylor will be the Big 12 champ by virtue of the league's tiebreaking procedure?
The Buckeyes have a blemish on their résumé, specifically a home loss to a team that struggled to bowl eligibility. But Ohio State has a chance to enhance its credentials by beating Michigan today and then winning the Big Ten Championship game on Dec. 6. Would the committee really leave out a one-loss Big Ten champion? If the Buckeyes win out, it is not unreasonable to think they would rise more than any other team in this group.
Baylor | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 7 | Record (9-1)
Ohio State tight end Jeff Heuerman (5)(Photo: Greg Bartram, USA TODAY Sports)
THE WILD CARD Arizona | Playoff Top 25 ranking: 11 | Record (10-2)
The Bears has to win two games to stay in contention. It must beat Texas Tech today in Arlington, Texas, and it must beat No. 12 Kansas State on Dec. 6 at home. Beating Kansas State would arguably give Baylor its second-best win of the season in the regular season's final week. Would that, combined with that head-to-head win vs. TCU, give Baylor a boost? It should. Would it boost the Bears into the top four? Maybe not.
This is the only team in this group that already has two losses. But think about this résumé should the Wildcats beat Oregon on Dec. 5 in Santa Clara: A conference championship and four wins vs. Playoff Top 25 teams - including two against the team ranked No. 2. Arizona's Playoff scenario demands another head-to-head win vs. Oregon and probably losses by all three of TCU, Ohio State and Baylor, but should that happen, the Wildcats are the next team up.
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