Patriots rested, ready for Colts

The last time we saw the Patriots, they were bottling up Peyton Manning and shutting down the Denver Broncos in a November game that could have ramifications on the AFC playoff picture in January.

Now, after getting a week off, the Patriots return to the field at 8:30 tonight when they meet the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. This, too, is a matchup that could determine who and where these conference contenders play in the postseason.

Not that you'd get anyone on the Patriots, who have won five straight games by an average of 18.6 points to improve to 7-2 and take control in the AFC East, to admit they're looking beyond tonight.

Same goes for the Colts, who opened the season with two losses but are now 6-3 and sitting comfortably atop the AFC South. While they won't say it, they are thinking about it.

'We know the magnitude of the ballgame, but it's the next game — that's why it's the most important ballgame,' said Chuck Pagano, one of eight coaches in NFL history to win 11-plus games in each of his first two seasons.

'There's obviously ramifications there, but we're really just trying to stick to the process and do the best job that we can of preparing and taking care of what we need to take care of and what we can control and prepare as best we can for a great Patriots team.'

Pagano has faced the Patriots in each of his first two seasons with the Colts. Things did not go well either time.

The Patriots won, 59-24, in the regular season in 2012 and 43-22 in the AFC Divisional round last season. That's 102 points in 120 minutes.

One of the reasons the Colts hired Pagano was because of his background in defense. Prior to arriving in Indianapolis he spent four seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, the last as coordinator when he presided over the league's third-ranked scoring defense.

The process of building the Colts into a championship defense has been halting, but is apparently trending upward.

'We've had a hiccup here or there, but I think we're starting to see what we envisioned when we first got together in 2012,' Pagano said. '(We're) starting to get to the point where we've had some performances, some outings that we're very, very proud of. You're only as good as your last ballgame, and we're headed in the right direction.'

It's a defense that has been very right or very wrong.

The Colts surrendered an average of 16.5 points in their six wins. But none of those vanquished foes have offenses ranked in the top 10 in the league, and five are 16th or lower.

That number skyrockets to 37.3 in their three losses — to the Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. Those teams field offenses that rank third, fourth and fifth, respectively.

The ninth-ranked Patriots are averaging 40.2 points during their winning streak and 31.2 on the season. Negating the blitz will be essential to their continued success.

'They blitz quite a bit more than most of the teams that we've played, which is going to be, I would say, a very critical factor in the game, our ability to handle that,' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said.

'They do a lot of different things defensively,' coach Bill Belichick added. 'They give you different looks: man, zone, blitz man, blitz zone, bring different combinations of people. Recognizing what they're doing, it's hard to do it before the snap because they do a good job of disguising.

'But at least recognizing it after the snap, make sure we get all the people blocked in the running game and the passing game with the different movement schemes that they have (will be important).'

The Colts are tied for 10th in the league with 24 sacks despite the loss of proven pass rusher Robert Mathis to a season-ending Achilles injury. Bjoern Werner, a linebacker/end in the Colts' hybrid, 3-4/4-3 alignment, has four sacks, and five other players have three each, so it's been a group effort.

The blitz has also played a big role in the Colts ranking first in the league in third-down defense, holding opponents to a 30 percent success rate. But they're last in the red zone as opponents have scored touchdowns on 70 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line, where you're less likely to see defenses blitz.

It's worth pointing out the Colts sacked Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, two of the best quarterbacks in the league at recognizing where pressure will come from, a total of once while allowing them to pass for 791 yards and nine touchdowns. Tom Brady is also elite when it comes to making defenses pay for blitzing him.

The Colts are improved defensively, but not enough to adversely impact Brady & Co. this week.

Rich Garven's prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 21.

Contact Rich Garven at rgarven@telegram.com.

Lokasi:

Share :