USC vs. Cal: Who has the edge?
Cal's multifaceted offense ranks in the top 20 nationally in eight statistical categories, including scoring (41.9 points per game) and passing (361.0 yards per game). The Golden Bears have scored at least 31 points in eight of their nine games and have topped 40 six times. Jared Goff, a true sophomore, has a 27-4 TD-INT ratio. Three of his receivers have caught 30-plus passes, led by Bryce Treggs (40 catches, 462 yards, 5 TDs). RB Daniel Lasco is a threat as a runner and receiver and is coming off a career game (30 carries, 188 yards). USC's Buck Allen is one of only two players in the nation with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards. QB Cody Kessler passed for a career-high 400 yards against Washington State, more than half (220) to top receiver Nelson Agholor. USC's offense has made more big plays lately - a prominent theme in last year's meeting. EDGE: CAL
DEFENSE
Despite blitzing less than any other team in the 'Power Five' conferences, USC has one of the top defenses in the Pac-12. The Trojans have been particularly adept at taking the ball away; they lead the conference with 11 interceptions. Sophomore Su'a Cravens is tied for the team lead with two and is on track to play after suffering a knee injury against WSU. Cravens' versatility is invaluable; he's an outside linebacker in the base defense and a nickel corner when USC uses five defensive backs. Cal's defense was historically awful last season, ranking next to last in the nation in yards (529.6) and points (45.9) allowed per game. The Bears are a little better this season (525.9/39.9) but far from good. Cal ranks last in the Pac-12 in a variety of defensive categories, including sacks (12). EDGE: USC
SPECIAL TEAMS
USC dominated in this area in last year's meeting. Agholor returned two punts for touchdowns. The Trojans also returned a blocked punt for a score. That's undoubtedly been a focal point for returning Bears punter Cole Leininger and special-teams coordinator Mark Tommerdahl. Cal opponents have returned only seven punts this season, but one went for a touchdown. The Trojans must be wary of Bears junior Trevor Davis, who has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and leads the nation with a 36.9-yard average. Cal kicker James Langford has made 10 of 15 FG attempts, but all of his misses have come from 40-plus yards. Agholor is 14 th in the nation in punt-return average (13.1), and teammate Adoree' Jackson is seventh in kickoff-return average (31.3). USC's coverage teams have improved lately but remain inconsistent. EDGE: EVEN
COACHING
Most blame coaching for the fact that USC is 6-3 instead of 8-1. But under Steve Sarkisian's guidance, the Trojans have bounced back from every loss with a victory. Sarkisian took the unusual step of giving the team a week off after the Washington State game. The move appeared to pay off, as practices were the most energetic they've been since early in the season. Sonny Dykes is in his second season at Cal. After going 1-11 in Year 1, the Bears are one victory away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. Dykes has shown he can develop an offense; defense is another matter. He brought in Art Kaufman from Cincinnati to coordinate that effort. It's clearly a long-term project. EDGE: USC
INTANGIBLES
Sarkisian and his players insisted they aren't looking ahead to next week's game against rival UCLA. The fact that this is a prime-time, national-TV game should mitigate any concerns about that. The Trojans are as healthy as they've been in some time thanks to last week's bye. They should have no shortage of confidence heading into this matchup. USC has won the past 10 meetings, and none of the past five has been close (average score: 39-13). Cal has shown it can win on the road, having beaten Northwestern, Washington State and Oregon State and coming within a Hail Mary of upsetting Arizona. That said, the Bears' best opportunities to get that critical sixth victory lie in their final two games at home against Stanford and BYU. That might be in the back of the players' minds. EDGE: USC
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Cal passing offense vs. USC secondary: Another week, another big challenge for the Trojans' young, thin defensive backfield. Despite losing Cravens just before halftime at WSU, the unit held up well against the Cougars' relentless passing attack. Since the Arizona State game, the secondary has done an excellent job of minimizing big plays. Goff has 15 completions of 40 or more yards, so it will be difficult for USC to keep that run going. Jackson has proved adept in one-on-one coverage, and fellow CB Kevon Seymour has a team-high 12 pass breakups. Adding Cravens, who moved from safety to linebacker this season, to the DB mix in the nickel helps a bunch. USC probably will have only two healthy recruited scholarship players available at safety. Cal's receiving corps is deep, big and talented. The Trojans' pass rush can help the secondary out by disrupting Goff's rhythm.
PREDICTION: USC 41, CAL 20
Although their overall records are just one game apart, there's little reason to believe this USC-Cal game will be any more competitive than the five that preceded it. The main reason: The Bears' defense just isn't ready for prime time. Kessler and the passing game have feasted on bad defenses in recent weeks. Against Colorado and Washington State, Kessler passed for 719 yards with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. It's not as if Cal is great against the run either, and Allen should have fresh legs after a week off. The Bears have moved the ball against just about everyone, but the Trojans have the best red-zone defense in the conference. Assuming things go according to form, USC can turn its attention to UCLA and a crosstown clash that could have significant implications in the race for the Pac-12 South title.
Contact the writer: mlev@ocregister.com
Post a Comment for "USC vs. Cal: Who has the edge?"