Apple's Best Fortune Tellers See Bigger iPhones (And Much More) For 2014

The iPad 5 isn't out till next week, but it's already old news. (Photo credit: Sonny Dickson)

With last week's iPhone launch behind it, and next week's iPad announcement ahead, 2013 product introductions are basically a wrap for Apple. While we still await the final details of the newest iPads - a slimmer full-size model, a Retina screen on the Mini - and perhaps updated Macbook Pros, the company is already onto next year's products. And if the pros at DisplaySearch and KGI Securities are to believed, those include a larger screen iPhone (at last?) and a long-awaited update to the Macbook Air, with a Retina screen of its own. But there is apparently more on tap, including possibly a cheaper desktop iMac, a larger 13-inch iPad, Apple's long-awaited televisions, and the much-discussed smartwatch. These could be the catalysts to reignite slowed growth at the company.

Many are quick to dismiss the rumor mill - and with good reason. Anyone with a website and an idea can post, 'Apple to release really cool gadget next year with features I want.' But some sources are better than others. David Hsieh of DisplaySearch is on such source and KGI Securities anaylst Ming-Chi Kuo is another. One of their secrets is that Apple can't introduce a product at all without acquiring literally millions of parts and getting them into their supply chain to make their product launches possible. I've discussed this before, but it's worth reiterating: Just because the Nexus 7 has a Retina-quality display (and it's a nice one, I can say from experience) doesn't mean the iPad Mini could have had one 6 months ago. For all Google Google /Asus' success with their tablet, Apple sells millions more.

To do a Retina Mini, Apple needs to have acquired 10 million screens before shipping a single unit and to be certain that it could obtain 10 million more each subsequent quarter. The way it does that is through a series of supplier agreements with display makers that are negotiated far in advance and often lead to dedicated production of Apple specified screens for its products. Hsieh, who has been in the business for a long time, talks to everyone, tries to figure out who is making what for Apple, and then attempts to discern how it relates to future products. From that, he's produced a 'best guess' a the 2014 product line (see chart above).

While Kuo hasn't weighed in yet, Hsieh sees both a larger iPhone 6 and an Apple phablet as the chart Apple shows. Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald agrees on the bigger phone. 'Our meeting with a tech supply chain vendor highlighted a bigger iPhone is in the works, and our contact expects a launch in the 2Q:14/3Q:14 time frame,' he told Cantor investors in a note last week, suggesting that this product has been in development for more than a year. That's wholly consistent with how long it might take to get everything right. Peter Misek of Jeffries is also on the larger iPhone bandwagon suggesting a lot of people will want to upgrade, according to Cnet.Kuo's method is less clear, but his results have been excellent. He has done an excellent job with recent Apple launches, calling most of the specs correctly before the products hit the market. Given the lead times Apple needs to tool up production lines for things like a launch of 95 different SKUs of the iPhone in a dozen countries on the same day (as Apple did with the iPhone 5s and 5c), it's no surprise that someone with the best sources can accurately determine what they'll look like. To that end, here's the consensus forecast for 2014:

iPad: This year is a pretty large iPad upgrade year, with the original 9.7-inch model expected to get much slimmer, smaller and lighter next week. The Mini is expected to get its Retina screen as well, although the rumor mill is mixed on whether it will ship this year in small quantities or be delayed until next (I'd bet on the former). For next year, Hsieh of DisplaySearch bets with others that Apple will push forward with an even bigger iPad while Kuo sees a higher resolution screen as a 'super Retina' display in the 9.7-inch model. Apple is losing the specs battle with its current Retina display on the larger iPad so Kuo's rumor makes sense if you believe Apple cares about such a thing .(Although traditionally it hasn't, the iPhone launch was unusually heavy on discussions of specs). Of course, it's possible both are true and a single screen resolution would be available across the two products. For his part, Kuo sees the extra pixels as the baseline for the next-generation iPad, not some product to exist above it in the lineup. That doesn't mean Apple won't keep offering this year's 'iPad 5″ along with next year's 'iPad 6″, as it has done with the iPhone.

Macbook Air: The basic design hasn't changed much since this product was introduced in 2008, so it's overdue for a physical redesign. Kuo and Hsieh see a very similar future Macbook Air that promises to be a significant update, including a Retina screen with perhaps 2304 x 1440 resolution. Notably it may end the choice between 11 and 13-inch models, but perhaps in a way to satisfy buyers of both: 'We expect the unprecedented 12-inch model will boast both the portability of the 11-inch model, and productivity of the 13-inch model,' Kuo says. 'The high resolution display will also offer the outstanding visual experience of the Retina MacBook Pro. The offering will likely be lighter and slimmer than the existing MacBook Air ... We think the form factor will ... redefine laptop computing once again.'

The stepchild of Apple's offering is its desktop computing line, which was redesigned last year, albeit strangely to suggest thinness without being thin. It remains pricey and, as Apple's computer sales continue to shrink, the company might be giving it some attention. Kuo sees the machine getting cheaper though has little to offer on whether it will change much. And realistically, that seems unlikely. The internals are actually mostly up-to-date laptop parts. Expanding the market for the machine would be the goal here.

With Samsung, Sony , Pebble and others delivering smartwatches now, Apple's rumored iWatch isn't expected for perhaps another year. It's a shame because excitement around wearable technology continues to grow (I have a lengthy review on the new Fitbit Force coming very soon, which isn't a smartwatch, but has some pretty smart features). DisplaySearch sees evidence Apple has sourced an OLED screen for the product, which is noteworthy because CEO Tim Cook has had unkind words for the technology. Of course, that hasn't stopped it from becoming a great success in smartphones from Samsung and others and in new, expensive TVs as well. Let the speculation begin on this, but this feels like an October 2014 product with a $249 price tag.

Apple television: This one remains the hardest one to believe though the rumor has been the longest gestating: That Apple will offer up its own TV. DisplaySearch believes it will be a so-called UltraHD, with 4 times as many pixels as a typical HD set. Those are just coming to market and are typically $4000 and up. They also only come in larger sizes like 55 and 65 inches because it is very difficult to benefit at all from the extra pixels unless you are relatively close; in smaller sets, it's nearly impossible. Why Apple would release such a product is unclear, given most of the benefit of its video services can be provided by the AppleTV set-top box. What's intriguing about this rumor is that Sony, Panasonic , Sharp and Toshiba are all incredibly vulnerable in the U.S. market (and elsewhere) with respect to their TV businesses. It's not impossible to imagine them all disappearing from store shelves within a few years. It's possible Apple sees itself using its retail stores as the place to sell TVs to the next group of buyers, even though the TV business isn't especially a growth one. Worth watching, so to speak.

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