Asia's Week: Recap and Run

With the dates for the prospectively pivotal (if obscurely titled) Third Plenum of China's Communist Party Central Committee in November still not set, let's hope that no loyal cadre will want for a last-minute room reservation in Beijing. One of those pesky Chinese tourists is likely to have swept it up. And supposedly this will be a conclave that no Politburo watcher will want to miss.

In anticipation of a full-throated explication of supremo Xi Jinping's agenda, and nearly one year into the new leadership's reign, let's recap the highlights of policy so far:

Particularly through its No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang, the leadership asks significant rebalancing of the economy to boost the consumer sector and by implication the well-being of ordinary Chinese, whose rewards have been held down by the investment/export-driven model to date. Such a transition, most economists believe, would interrupt growth-which did pause earlier this year but has since picked up, based on official figures. However, the renewed output appears concentrated in the very previous channels of expansion, including popular real estate speculation (a rare outlet for assumed return on savings). So the question is, how much rebalancing is the new government really willing to seek?

(Pause: Your correspondent has a history on this issue. Many disagree, foreseeing continued growth. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) reported this week that China's venerable 'Mr. Market,' economist Wu Jinglian, is sanguine about the prospects.)

China continues to pour resources into technological innovation, which some believe can give it an edge over an under-investing U.S. Science indeed is powerful, and maybe the Chinese can effectively use it as well to counteract the country's despoiling of its air and water. There the West has a clear and commanding lead. But in both cases, it's going to require more proof of leadership than one year under this Standing Committee can offer. President Xi is not above saying he'd really like more American business dollars coming into China to move things along.

However, not everyone would like to see a more Westernized economy-or Westernized anything. A vocal 'nationalist' element-including hard-core Maoists-is pressing against the kinds of reforms imputed to Premier Li. Vulnerability to such forces within the Party and even the country could explain the two signature moves by the leadership to date: the crackdowns on corruption and dissent.

Tackling abuses by Party and provincial officials, even if sometimes in Maoist ways, may help regain Communist legitimacy and discipline. That gives the new team better standing-and a chance to rout potential adversaries. (This is obviously the backdrop of the Bo Xilai case, clouded only by the fact that Xi Jinping himself is also capable of 'Red' flourishes.) So anti-corruption is a net plus, even if some poor slob salesmen get caught in the harsh net.

The stifling of voices-intellectuals and bloggers, as well as the occasional financier--is a less defensible posture. But nearly every day, it seems, there is some new plug being pulled. Openness is needed for real economic modernization, beyond a so far symbolic example like the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, to be carried out. Maybe this dark period is just for appearances and not the start of a decade of door knocks late at night. That would seem to be irrational rule: In most of China an accepted central authority has little to fear.

Beyond that repression has come a ritual bashing of foreign businesses, through official or semiofficial channels. Maybe this, too, is necessary political sport, though at some point a fair rule of law has to apply to commerce if China is to take its rightful part in the world economy. In the meantime, foreign consumer brands will just have to fall back on their fundamental popularity, regardless of what some zealous or put-up muckraker might report.

At least similar rhetorical flurries have not yet led to serious military adventures, with the Indian and Philippine fronts even being tamped down at last word. (But China is still cozying up to Pakistan, and the South China Sea struggle isn't going away, as this wonderful New York Times multimedia presentation illustrates.) Japan's remains the most worrisome bilateral relationship, and it's going to take cooler heads to maintain that peace.

Whenever they decide to hold this Plenum, may wisdom prevail.

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