Employers in US Probably Expanded Payrolls at a Faster Pace

Employers probably added more workers in September than in the prior month and the jobless rate held at the lowest level since 2008, a sign the U.S. labor market was picking up before the government's partial shutdown.

Payrolls rose by 180,000 last month, the most since April, after a 169,000 gain in August, according to the median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The report, delayed by the 16-day shutdown that ended last week, was originally slated for Oct. 4.

Sustaining the advance in the labor market hinges on how quickly the world's largest economy can bounce back from the loss of business caused by the fiscal impasse. The budget dispute may have trimmed fourth-quarter growth, and Federal Reserve policy makers will probably wait until March to begin trimming stimulus, a Bloomberg survey showed last week.

'Payrolls will look a little better' compared with the previous few months, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. 'From here on, we'll see some impact from the shutdown, though I wouldn't expect that to be long-lived. As the overall economy improves, it will lift the labor market along with it.'

The Labor Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from payroll increases of 100,000 to 256,000.

The unemployment rate, derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, held at 7.3 percent last month, according to the median projection in the Bloomberg survey.

Faster hiring that leads to bigger gains in wages would help accelerate consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

Private Employment

Private employment, which excludes government agencies, increased 180,000 in September following a 152,000 advance the prior month, economists predicted.

Even as the debate on fiscal policy heated up last month, retailers began announcing plans to add workers for the holiday-shopping season.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), the world's largest retailer, is hiring 55,000 seasonal employees, a 10 percent rise from last year. Target Corp. (TGT) said it plans to take on about 70,000 workers. Kohl's Corp. (KSS) will add about 53,000 workers for the holiday season, about the same as last year.

The projected gain in payrolls for September would still be below the average 195,000 monthly increase in the first half of 2013. Through August, the U.S. had recovered 6.8 million of the 8.7 million jobs lost as a result of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.

Government Shutdown

President Barack Obama last week signed legislation that funds the government through mid-January and suspends the nation's $16.7 trillion debt limit, for now ending the threat of default, which economists had warned could tip the U.S. back into a recession.

Baca Juga

The October employment report will be pushed back to Nov. 8 from the originally announced Nov. 1, according to the Labor Department's website.

Fed policy makers, scheduled to gather Oct. 29-30, are trying to gauge the strength of the U.S. expansion without federal economic data that was suspended when some government agencies closed.

The central bankers will wait until their March 18-19 meeting to pare the monthly pace of asset buying to $70 billion from $85 billion, according to the median of 40 responses in a Bloomberg survey last week.

Fed's View

'Conditions in the job market today are still far from what all of us would like to see,' Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference following the Fed's September meeting.

While the labor market has shown improvement, the partial federal shutdown and the debt limit showdown may have been a source of concern for employers.

San Francisco based URS Corp. (URS), a provider of engineering and construction services, furloughed about 3,000 employees, saying the total includes employees idled by the closing of a government facility where they work as well as those directed by U.S. officials to halt operations or cut staffing.

Among other companies paring their workforce, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, last week said it eliminated an additional 925 jobs in its home-loan unit and has cut more than 5,700 since midyear.

Bloomberg Survey ================================================================ Nonfarm Private Manu Unemploy Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls Rate ,000's ,000's ,000's % ================================================================ Date of Release 10/22 10/22 10/22 10/22 Observation Period Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Median 180 180 5 7.3% Average 180 180 6 7.3% High Forecast 256 245 15 7.4% Low Forecast 100 95 0 7.1% Number of Participants 93 53 28 89 Previous 169 152 14 7.3% ---------------------------------------------------------------- 4CAST 170 175 --- 7.4% ABN Amro 200 210 --- 7.3% Action Economics 170 180 10 7.3% Ameriprise Financial 160 160 6 7.4% Banca Aletti 190 195 5 7.3% Bank of the West 180 --- 10 7.3% Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 210 --- --- 7.1% Banorte-IXE 185 --- --- 7.3% Bantleon Bank AG 200 --- --- 7.3% Barclays 200 210 --- 7.2% Bayerische Landesbank 183 --- --- 7.3% BBVA 180 187 5 7.3% BMO Capital Markets 160 --- --- 7.3% BNP Paribas 170 160 --- 7.3% BofA Merrill Lynch 170 170 --- 7.3% Briefing.com 165 180 --- 7.3% Capital Economics 200 --- --- 7.3% CIBC World Markets 185 --- --- 7.3% Citi 180 170 0 7.3% ClearView Economics 178 180 10 7.2% CohnReznick 180 190 --- 7.3% Comerica 175 --- 8 7.3% Commerzbank AG 175 --- --- 7.3% Credit Agricole CIB 160 --- --- 7.3% Credit Suisse 165 175 --- 7.2% CTI Capital 173 --- --- --- Daiwa Securities America 190 --- --- 7.3% Danske Bank A/S 180 180 8 7.3% DekaBank 190 --- --- 7.2% Desjardins Group 185 --- --- 7.3% Deutsche Bank Securities 170 170 --- 7.3% Deutsche Postbank AG 180 --- --- 7.3% First Trust Advisors 197 202 2 7.3% FTN Financial 180 170 --- 7.3% Goldman, Sachs & Co. 200 --- --- 7.3% Helaba 175 --- --- 7.3% High Frequency Economics 185 --- --- 7.3% HSBC Markets 171 172 5 7.3% Hugh Johnson Advisors 185 189 15 7.4% IDEAglobal 190 185 5 7.2% IHS Global Insight 155 --- --- 7.3% Informa Global Markets 195 --- 0 7.3% ING Financial Markets 190 195 7 7.2% Intesa Sanpaolo 180 --- --- 7.3% Investec Securities 175 --- --- 7.3% J.P. Morgan Chase 195 200 5 7.2% Janney Montgomery Scott 155 160 2 7.2% Jefferies 190 180 10 7.2% John Hancock Financial 175 180 --- 7.3% Landesbank Berlin 250 --- --- 7.2% Landesbank BW 200 --- --- 7.2% LinkUp 110 --- --- --- Lloyds Tsb Bank 189 194 5 7.3% Maria Fiorini Ramirez 180 185 --- --- Market Securities 172 --- --- 7.3% MET Capital Advisors 180 169 --- 7.3% Mizuho Securities 175 --- --- 7.4% Moody's Analytics 160 170 5 7.2% Morgan Stanley 185 190 10 7.3% National Bank Financial 160 --- --- 7.3% Natixis 185 --- --- 7.3% Nomura Securities 180 180 5 7.2% Nord/LB 170 175 5 7.3% OSK-DMG 181 --- --- 7.3% Oxford Economics USA 165 175 --- 7.3% Pantheon Macroeconomics 160 --- --- 7.2% Paragon Research 256 --- --- 7.2% Pierpont Securities 165 165 --- 7.3% PineBridge Investments --- 195 --- 7.3% PNC Bank 185 180 5 7.3% Prestige Economics 160 --- --- 7.4% Raiffeisenbank International 175 180 --- 7.3% Raymond James 165 155 --- 7.3% RBC Capital Markets 185 190 --- 7.3% RBS Securities 180 170 --- 7.3% Regions Financial 202 180 6 7.2% Santander Brasil 188 188 --- 7.3% Scotiabank 180 --- --- 7.3% SMBC Nikko Securities 240 230 --- 7.2% Societe Generale 240 245 --- 7.1% Southbay Research 146 136 --- --- Southern Polytechnic State 100 95 --- 7.4% Standard Chartered Bank 165 177 --- 7.3% Sterne Agee & Leach 150 --- --- 7.3% Stone McCarthy Research 190 180 5 7.3% TD Securities 182 182 10 7.3% TrimTabs 159 --- --- --- UBS 195 185 --- 7.2% UniCredit Research 190 --- --- 7.3% Union Investment 175 --- --- 7.3% University of Maryland 164 154 10 7.3% Wells Fargo & Co. 170 --- --- 7.3% Westpac Banking Co. 192 --- --- 7.3% Wrightson ICAP 180 185 --- 7.3% ================================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at cwellisz@bloomberg.net