Reason for Optimism as Panthers Shed Cautious Ways
We will have to check back in three months for the final answer, but there are signs that the Carolina Panthers, a disappointment at 2-3, could become one of the N.F.L.'s breakout teams.
First, Coach Ron Rivera, quarterback Cam Newton and the Panthers will have to overcome a well-earned reputation as a group that cannot beat good teams; that cannot win close games in the fourth quarter; and that is too conservative on fourth down.
As a rookie in 2011, Newton dazzled N.F.L. fans, but the Panthers finished 6-10. Carolina was 1-7 against teams that finished with a winning record, and the Panthers won once in nine tries when they had the ball and were trailing by one score in the fourth quarter.
The same issues cropped up last year. Carolina started 3-9, with an 0-7 record in games decided by 7 or fewer points and a 1-5 mark against teams that finished with a winning record. With the season effectively over at the three-quarters mark, the Panthers finished 4-0, ensuring that Rivera would be back for another season.
This season, the Panthers defeated the winless Giants, 38-0, in Week 3 and won in Minnesota against the 1-4 Vikings, 35-10, on Sunday. But the Panthers have blown two fourth-quarter leads. And after a loss to Arizona, Carolina was 5-15 since 2011 in games that were within one score entering the fourth quarter, the worst mark in the league.
But there is reason to be optimistic about the Panthers. Carolina has outscored its opponents by 41 points this season, the most by a 2-3 team since 1921. There has been a strong relationship between points differential and the future performance of 2-3 teams. Of all the 2-3 teams from 1990 to 2012, 11 have outscored opponents by 20 or more points, with an average points differential of 28.5. Over the rest of the season, those 11 teams won 64.9 percent of their games.
The Carolina defense has allowed just 89 rushing yards per game, the fifth-best mark in the league. And the pass defense ranks in the top 10 in both sack rate and yards per pass while leading the N.F.L. in interception rate. Carolina is allowing just 1.2 points per drive to opposing offenses, the fourth-best mark in the league (behind Kansas City, New England and Seattle).
But perhaps the most interesting development in Carolina is what's happening on the sideline. Rivera has long frustrated proponents of analytics who favor aggressive coaching tactics.
One of the most common complains is that N.F.L. coaches fail to go for it on fourth down often enough, particularly on fourth-and-short. Since 2012, there have been three occasions when the Panthers, while clinging to a one-score lead late in the fourth quarter, have elected to punt or kick a field goal on fourth-and-1. Carolina is 0-3 in those games.
After being burned twice last season, in losses to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Carolina repeated its cautious approach at Buffalo this season. With 1 minute 42 seconds left in Week 2, the Panthers faced a fourth-and-1 on the Bills' 21-yard line. Carolina led by 3, and a first down run would have iced the game. Instead, the Panthers kicked a field goal, and Buffalo came back to win with a touchdown.
In Newton, the Panthers have a terrific short-yardage runner. Carolina has also spent valuable resources (two first-round draft picks and tens of millions of dollars) to acquire DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the backfield. Those three have been excellent in short yardage, making the decision to be conservative on fourth down even more curious.
Since the start of the 2011 season, the Panthers have run the ball 54 times on either third-and-1 or fourth-and-1. Carolina has picked up a first down on 44 of those occasions, an 81 percent conversion rate. Even more impressive, Newton has picked up a first down on 20 of the 22 times he has kept the ball in those situations.
It appears as if the light went on for Rivera after the Bills game. The next week against the Giants, Tolbert rushed for a 2-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 in the first quarter. Against the Cardinals, Rivera called a short pass on fourth-and-1 at the Arizona 15 in the first half: Brandon LaFell was open but dropped the easy conversion.
Then, against the Vikings, the Panthers converted twice on fourth-and-1 in the first quarter, with the second one resulting in a Newton touchdown pass to Steve Smith.
After the game, Rivera was asked about his new outlook on fourth down.
'I think these guys bought into it,' Rivera said. 'I think that showing a little confidence and faith in them has really helped them.'
If Rivera sticks to his word, the Panthers will suddenly become one of the league's most dangerous teams, instead of a team that implodes in late-game situations.
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