Mailbag: Will Darrelle Revis be with Patriots in 2015? - Boston Globe
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With the Patriots at 7-2 heading into a Sunday night showdown with Andrew Luck and the Colts, Globe NFL writer Ben Volin tackles your questions. Have a question for the next mailbag? Submit it here:
Q: Nick, Fayetteville:
Do you think Darrelle Revis will be a Patriot next year?
Ben: Hi Nick, I do think Revis will be back. Even though Revis is having an excellent season, I think he's going to have a tough time cashing in on a mega deal in free agency, mostly because he'll be a 30-year-old cornerback with an ACL injury on his resume. I would expect the Patriots to decline the $12 million option in his contract prior to the end of the league year in March, then work on a new 2- or 3-year deal worth $20-25 million guaranteed to keep him in the fold. The defense is clearly much better with him in the secondary, and I think Revis realizes that the Patriots give him the best chance to play on the big stage and help his national profile. You don't let Revis walk away unless you have a good Plan B, and I don't think there is a good Plan B out there in free agency or the draft.
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Q: Ed, Phoenix:
Hey Ben, When do you think we'll see more Tim Wright involved in the offense? I know the offense is rolling right now, so there's really no need to mess with it, but when you trade away a guy like Mankins for Tim Wright, you'd think the Pats would use him more. Also, why do you think Aaron Dobson and Alfonzo Dennard have been healthy scratches so far this season? Is there a chance we see them play after the bye week?
Ben: Hi Ed, Wright plays about 15-20 snaps per game, and I think that is what we should expect from him moving forward, assuming Rob Gronkowski stays healthy. Wright has shown good hands, catching 17-of-18 targets this year, really solid catch-and-run ability, and good height in the Red Zone. But realistically Wright is the fifth-best option in the passing game, behind Gronk, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Shane Vereen. And since he's not much of a blocker, he's not going to be used in an every-down role given how much the Patriots like to utilize the power-run game and playaction passes. But he's still dangerous on the goal line and has been a nice complementary piece this year.
As for Dobson and Dennard, I think they were both significantly held back by missing most of the offseason and training camp with injuries. Dobson hasn't done a good enough job of catching up with the playbook to earn a spot in the lineup and has essentially been replaced by Brian Tyms for now, although Tyms hasn't done much since that touchdown catch in Buffalo. Dennard is a little stiff as a runner and has been leap-frogged by Malcolm Butler on the depth chart. But the Patriots have excellent depth at the position, and have a decent security blanket in Dennard if they suffer a significant injury.
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Q: Akshith, Gainesville, Fla.:
Will Jonas Gray step up and be able to run effectively to keep the passing offense going? And also when will Chandler Jones be back?
Ben: Hi Akshith, I do think the Patriots are in pretty good hands with Gray at running back. His stats haven't exactly jumped off the page through three games - he had just three rushes for 12 yards against the Jets and 12 rushes for 33 yards against the Broncos - but a lot of that has been a function of the offensive line getting pushed around a little up front. The Patriots also had no trouble throwing the ball against the Broncos, Bears or the Jets' depleted secondary, so establishing the run game wasn't a huge priority. But I've been impressed with Gray's decisive running style. He's a load to bring down at 5-10 and 225 pounds, and he's averaging a healthy 4.1 yards per carry. If the Patriots can get him about 15 carries a game, it will be enough to keep defenses honest and get the playaction passing game going.
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Q: Robert, Foxborough:
Who will be in the Super Bowl?
Ben: Hi Robert, I predicted Patriots vs. Eagles back in the preseason, and I'll stick with it now. If the Patriots can keep Brady, Gronk and Revis healthy, they're going to the Super Bowl. If they can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC no team is coming into Gillette and beating them. And I think they'd even win an AFC Championship Game on the road, although Denver at home scares me. It's hard to have much faith in any NFC team right now, especially with the Cardinals losing Carson Palmer for the year. Detroit is playing well right now, and has the defense to carry it on a long playoff run, but I'm such a believer in Chip Kelly that I think they'll plug in Mark Sanchez and keep right on rolling for the rest of the season.
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Q: Jeremy, Brighton:
Hi Ben,
Tell me everything you know about the quick-run-on/off-the-field fake punt/field goal. Seems to be a relatively new play - are other teams using it and does it generally seem to work? How long is the ref supposed to give the defense to substitute - and does that amount of time change when the clock is running out (i.e. trying to get the FG unit on the field before time expires)?
Ben: Hi Jeremy, I don't think this is a completely new phenomenon, as I remember the Patriots running this play once or twice last year, and I'm sure other teams have done it in the past. I think the goal mostly is to not allow the other team time to line up and to prepare for the next play. Bill Belichick wants the other team sprinting onto the field and scrambling to get into position, whether he's going for it on fourth down or setting up a punt. I don't believe there's a set rule for how much time the referee has to give the other team to set up, but he will stand over the ball until the defense is set and ready to go. From the NFL rulebook: 'With the exception of the last two minutes of either half, the offensive team, while in the process of substitution or simulated substitution, is prohibited from rushing quickly to the line and snapping the ball with the obvious attempt to cause a defensive foul; i.e., too many men on the field.'
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Q: Kat, Easton:
What are some of the players doing on the bye week? What about BB?
Ben: Hi Kat, every player is different, of course, but from talking to a few guys and scanning social media, it seems like a lot of players got out of town for the weekend. Most players tend to fly home to see family, and some of the rookies and young guys take the chance to go back to college and reconnect with their old teammates. Gisele posted a photo of Tom playing with his kids in a pool surrounded by palm trees, so obviously they went somewhere tropical. Gronk watched his brother play in the TCU-Kansas State game over the weekend. Not sure what Belichick was up to, but I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck away to Nantucket or Florida for the weekend.
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Q: Matt Koegler, Spokane, Wash.:
What is a move you would have liked to see at the trade deadline that didn't happen? Also do you think they should use Tyms more as a deep threat or do you think LaFell is doing a good enough job getting behind defenses?
Ben: Hi Matt, I didn't think the Patriots would do anything significant at the trade deadline - the NFL just doesn't work like the other sports. Teams are reluctant to trade players and hurt their depth, and it's difficult to trade for a guy and incorporate him into your system in the middle of the season. However, during the offseason I was surprised the Patriots didn't find another pass rusher to upgrade the roster spot utilized last year by Andre Carter. Chandler Jones is their best pure pass rusher, and the only backups behind him is last year's seventh-round pick (Michael Buchanan) and a rookie from Division II (Zach Moore). Now with Jones out, they don't have much speed on the edges to attack the quarterback, and they must rely on interior pressure, blitzes or coverage sacks.
I think Tyms is being used an appropriate amount - about 5-10 snaps per game. He's a good deep threat, but not versatile enough to surpass guys like Wright, Michael Hoomanawanui or Danny Amendola on the depth chart. And even though Tyms doesn't have a target in the last three games, you can see the effect he has on the game when defenses immediately roll safety coverage his way.
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Q: Paul Colandrea, Palm Coast, Fla.:
What are your predictions for the Colts-Patriots game? Will the secondary be able to hold up against the Colts defense?
Ben: I think the Patriots will roll. Andrew Luck will put up some fantasy stats, but he can be sloppy with the football, and Belichick will be happy to sit back with seven in coverage and wait for him to make a mistake. And I'm not at all a believer in the Colts defense, ranked 18th in yards and points. I think Gronk and Shane Vereen are going to feast on their linebackers, and won't be shocked if Jonas Gray has a breakout game. It won't be as big of a blowout as last January's playoff win, but I definitely like the Patriots in this one.
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Q: Ayush, San Jose, Calif.:
With Pats' dismantling of Bears and Broncos in consecutive weeks, there seems to be an aura of invincibility about them. Their pass offense looks capable of picking apart any defense given enough time for Brady. However, don't you think Jets in Week 7 laid the blueprint of beating the Pats? Run-heavy offense backed by decent quarterback play and controlling the clock to keep Brady and offense off the field. Do you think that will work every time and some teams with a good running game will try and exploit that? I know Pats did a great job of stopping the run in Week 9 against Broncos but that seemed more of an exception than norm.
Ben: Hi Ayush, certainly establishing the run game and keeping the ball away from Brady is a great blueprint for beating the Patriots. But I think that Jets game was a little freakish - the Patriots were trying to figure out a new defense without their captain, Jerod Mayo, and only had three days to prepare. The players admitted there was a lot of miscommunication on the defensive line, with players missing or not always getting the right calls. But they have had plenty of time to work out those kinks, and the defense has played much better the last two games.
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Q: David, Sacramento:
Hey, Ben I was wondering why the Patriots play really well at home but they can be inconsistent on the road?
Ben: Hi David, this applies to almost all NFL teams, not just the Patriots. Home teams are 86-60-1 this year. You get to sleep in your own bed, don't have to worry about entertaining family and taking care of ticket requests, and feed off the energy of the home crowd. Conversely, road teams often have to take long, uncomfortable flights, change time zones, sleep in a hotel bed, and face a hostile crowd.
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Q: Alan, Crete, Illinois:
The Patriots gave up three TD's to the Broncos; that's commendable. However, it bothered me that Brandon Browner was chewed up for good yardage at least three times. Does he know the coverage schemes or is he going his own way? I liked the signing initially but now, I'm beginning to think he might be a liability come playoff time.
Ben: Hi Alan, I think Browner has given the Patriots exactly what they expected when they signed him. He's not a shutdown corner, has definitely given up some catches to Martellus Bennett and some of the Broncos' receivers. And he has committed seven penalties through two games, which definitely could be costly at some point this season. But Browner also shut down Julius Thomas (whose touchdown came against Patrick Chung), and gives the Patriots great size and physicality in the secondary that allows him to matchup on big receivers or tight ends. The Patriots are so much more physical and versatile in the secondary with Revis and Browner replacing Aqib Talib and Dennard.
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Q: Gordon, Surrey, UK:
We often talk about Manning vs Brady. However what's the Manning vs Wilfork win:loss ratio like?
Ben: Hi Gordon, Manning vs. Wilfork - that's a new one. I've got Wilfork at 5-4 all-time against Peyton, including playoffs. Wilfork went 3-4 against the Colts from 2004-2010 (Peyton didn't play in 2011), and 2-0 against the Broncos since 2012 (he played in the 2012 and 2014 victories but missed both games in 2013 due to injury).
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Q: Robert, Boston:
The Denver win converted me from skeptic to believer. Nonetheless I can't get past the cap room still being somewhere around $10M. Given the fairly weak receiver group, the improved but still questionable offensive line, the lack of depth at linebacker and on the defensive line, I just find it hard to believe that there wasn't an opportunity to shore some of that up and still leave room for bonuses. With the trade deadline past, it now seems even more hard to understand why they'd leave that much unspent. Who's making that call?
Ben: Hi, Robert. The cap space doesn't bother me - down to $8.2 million as of Tuesday morning. They've got to keep aside $3-4 million for incentives that won't count until the end of the year, and a few million in reserve in case they need to sign players off the street. Whatever they don't use can be rolled over into next year, which could help pay for Darrelle Revis, or restructure Tom Brady again, or find another receiver in free agency. As for receiver, they brought back Julian Edelman, hit a home run with Brandon LaFell (three years, $9 million) and found a nice complementary piece in Tim Wright, so I'm not sure what else you wanted them to do. Between Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, Shane Vereen and Wright, they have a lot of nice pieces for Brady. They would have loved to replace Danny Amendola in a perfect world, but he was locked into a roster spot because of his contract - it was more expensive to cut him than keep him - and because getting rid of him after one season would have been a PR disaster, given that he was the guy they paid instead of the immensely popular Wes Welker. But Amendola will likely be gone next year, and Aaron Dobson will be on blast, as well.
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Q: Peter, Boston:
How does the Patriots' total spending (both cash and against the cap) compare to other teams in NFL? Are they 'cheap' as critics say?
Ben: Hi Peter, no, I don't think the Patriots are cheap. I count 11 teams with more salary cap space right now, and the Patriots had no problem shelling out big money to get Darrelle Revis this offseason, or signing Edelman, LaFell and Browner. History shows that free agency produces many more busts than home runs (look at the Raiders and Bucs this year), and the Patriots are often wise to stay out of the free agent bidding wars. They also have two owners in Robert and Jonathan Kraft who are very shrewd businessmen and try to walk away from every negotiation feeling like they got the win. Occasionally that costs them a player that could genuinely help the team (cooler heads should have prevailed in the Welker negotiations), but I would chalk it up more to ego than cheapness.
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Q: Robert, Lumberport, W.V.
How soon could we see Chandler Jones and Sealver Siliga back on the field?
Ben: Hi Robert, I believe Siliga can return from IR-Designated to Return for the Lions game in Week 11, though it may take him a little time to get back into the rotation. I don't have an answer on Chandler Jones' hip injury, but at least the Patriots haven't put him on IR yet, so there's at least some hope that he could be back sometime in December. The initial one-month report was probably a little optimistic, but maybe he can return by Week 15 or 16 and get ready for the playoff run.
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Q: Richard, Melrose:
What is it that Belichick brings to the table that other coaches seem to have missing in their coaching DNA?
Ben: Hi Richard, I think one reason Belichick is so successful is because he has total job security thanks to those Super Bowl rings, which allows him to take risks and make coaching decisions that others simply can't. Most coaches are simply trying to avoid getting fired, which leads to a lot of punts on fourth-and-1. Belichick also focuses more on developing backups and special teamers than most. And he does a good job of constantly learning and evolving and expanding his knowledge base, which is rare for a coach who has experienced so much success.
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Q: Coach, Swampscott:
We have heard so much about how 'demanding' the Patriots are on players, and that it's not for everyone. Can you elaborate, and perhaps ask Browner, Ayers, LaFell, etc. what their take on it is?
Ben: Hi Coach, I think the Patriots just have a very professional, no-nonsense approach to football, and many players are not used to it. For some, football has always been nothing more than a game, and something that came very naturally and easily to them. But there is nothing easy about the NFL, and those who don't know how to treat it like a very difficult and demanding job are weeded out pretty quickly.
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Q: Jack, Rhode Island:
Ben, You seem very insightful and professional. How can you work with such 'Debby-Downers' like Felger, Mazz and Borges? Thanks
Ben: Hi Jack, hey, I was conducting the 'Brady needs to play better or he'll get shipped out of town soon' train back after that Chiefs debacle, so I'm just as much of a Debby Downer.
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