Playoff Simulation: Should we want an all
We are three Sundays away from the final selection committee rankings that will determine the first College Football Playoff pairings.
The Football Four and the College Football Playoff committees agree that the four best teams in the country are Florida State, Alabama, Oregon and Mississippi State - in some order.
How this works
The Football Four bracket is interesting as it allows for the possibility of an all-SEC championship game.
Football Four four-team playoff summary
If the Football Four Playoff Projection comes to fruition, could a rematch between Alabama and Mississippi State determine the National Champion?
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoffs.
The first semifinal features No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State. The Seminoles are undefeated and have won 26 consecutive games. Narrow victories including three wins after trailing by 15 or more points, the most in the FBS, have seen Florida State slip from preseason No. 1 to No. 12 in our most recent Power Rankings.
Florida State is a good team, but the Seminoles are not the best team in the country.
Florida State defensive backs Ronald Darby (top) and Jalen Ramsey (bottom) celebrated a win vs. Miami, but they are not projected to win the Playoff.(Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports)
Mississippi State lost last Saturday in Tuscaloosa but the Bulldogs were competitive on the road against Alabama. That's more than we could say about Florida State if the Seminoles played the Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium. If Florida State played a road game against Alabama, we would project the Tide to win by more than two touchdowns on average.
In a Mississippi State vs. Florida State semifinal, the Bulldogs advance 59% of the time by an average score of 35-28.
The second semifinal, No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oregon, looks a lot like the Mississippi State-Alabama game we saw last week. Offense vs. Defense.
Entering the game, Mississippi State's offense ranked second in the SEC in points per game and first in yards per play. Alabama's defense ranked second in the SEC in points per game allowed and first in yards per play allowed.
The Alabama defense, which leads the nation in fewest touchdowns allowed, prevailed in the matchup. Against Oregon, the Alabama defense would come out on top again.
Alabama advances 56% of the time by an average score of 39-35.
After 50,000 simulations, the most likely national champion is Alabama. Alabama wins 38.9% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship Game, Alabama defeats Mississippi State 65% of the time by an average score of 35-25.
Semifinals
A rematch of the Week 12 showdown between Alabama and Mississippi State looks boring, as the Tide are expected to win by double digits. Alabama is a deserving participant in the four-team playoff. Unfortunately for Mississippi State, we project the Bulldogs to lose the season finale against Ole Miss, likely knocking Mississippi State out of the College Football Playoff.
Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket:
National Championship
No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State | Mississippi State wins 59% of the time by an average score of 35-28.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oregon | Alabama wins 56% of the time by an average score of 39-35.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 4 Mississippi State | Alabama wins 65% of the time by an average score of 35-25.
The likelihoods for each team to win the championship are 38.9% for Alabama, 26.1% for Oregon, 22.9% for Mississippi State and 12.1% for Florida State.
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