Ranking Reaction: Playoff committee consistently inconsistent

For the College Football Playoff selection committee, tasked as it is with reams and reams of data, numbers and metrics, there are three foundational ways to view regular-season opponents for teams in the Playoff hunt: what they were before game day, what they were on game day and what they are today.

Call this one aspect of the committee's weekly battle between perception and reality.

Perception, for example, finds that Mississippi State, which remained in fourth in this week's Top 25 ranking, has compiled wins against a slew of quality opponents - LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Arkansas. Reality suggests otherwise: Mississippi State has just one win, versus Auburn, against teams in the Playoff Top 25.

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'I think they're holding strong where they're located now,' selection committee chairman Jeff Long said of the Bulldogs. 'While they only have one win over a currently ranked Top 25 win, they do have wins over teams that were previously in the Top 25. The committee takes that into account.'

Later, Long would attempt to clarify his remarks by saying he was referencing only the Playoff ranking - which made its debut on Oct. 28 - and not the two Amway Coaches Poll or Associated Press Top 25, which first appeared in the preseason.

Besides, he added, ranking at any point during the regular season is not a criteria, necessarily; it's merely something the committee members are aware of, and as such may play a role in deciding each week's top four.

'You know, it's just one of the factors we look at,' he said. 'I cannot sit here and tell you that the committee is not aware that a team was previously ranked in our Top 25. That goes into the discussion, and it's noted.'

Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) celebrates with running back Jalin Marshall (17) after Marshall's touchdown Saturday at Ohio Stadium.(Photo: Greg Bartram, USA TODAY Sports)

In the committee's battle between perception and reality, the former is winning in a rout. The committee may have a plan and a blueprint - an outline for choosing the nation's best teams - but each week finds it applying these basic tenets in an inconsistent manner.

This mindset allows the committee to penalize sixth-ranked Ohio State, for example, because the passage of time between a September game vs. Virginia Tech and the first committee meeting on Oct. 28 to change from a quality loss to a bad one.

Yet it ignores that the Buckeyes have more road wins against Top 25 teams this month - or, thought another way, more wins against Top 25 teams in the last three weeks - than the Bulldogs have such wins all season. Or that TCU, which remains stuck in fifth, has three such wins: Minnesota, Oklahoma and Kansas State. Or that the Horned Frogs can also tout a win at West Virginia on Nov. 1, back when the Mountaineers were inside the Playoff poll.

The committee's tendency to use criteria that justifies its own rankings - in this case, referencing rankings at a point prior to a head-to-head matchup - might be called cherry-picking. It might also be called confirmation bias: The tendency to prioritize information that conforms to one's preexisting hypothesis - in this case, that Mississippi State has earned the fourth spot in the Playoff poll.

On a smaller scale, consider the competition between No. 23 Boise State, No. 24 Marshall and unranked Colorado State for the automatic bid to one of January's access bowls.

Boise State's strength of schedule is 'far and away' stronger than Marshall's, Long said, and that's hard to argue: Boise has six wins against bowl-eligible opposition and faced Mississippi in nonconference play. Marshall, on the other hand, will play zero games against major-conference teams.

But this logic is strained when comparing the Broncos to Colorado State, which lost the head-to-head matchup earlier this season but has otherwise run the table. The Rams have two wins against teams from power conferences, Colorado and Boston College, and can add an impressive league win against Utah State.

Boise State has yet to play Utah State, meaning it can bolster its résumé before the end of the regular season - much like Baylor, which can add to its chances of a top-four spot by defeating Kansas State on Dec. 6.

Yet along the top portion of the poll, TCU sits ahead of Baylor despite losing the head-to-head matchup. That's because TCU has the stronger résumé - meaning the Horned Frogs get the edge Colorado State does not. At least the committee is consistent in its inconsistency.

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