Thunder's title odds take a hit
What Durant injury means for OKC's win projection, Westbrook, MVP race
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
Soobum Im/USA TODAY Sports Russell Westbrook's scoring averages should rise in Kevin Durant's absence.
The NBA awoke Sunday to the bad news that Oklahoma City Thunder star Kevin Durant has a Jones fracture in the fifth metatarsal in his right foot. The injury to the reigning MVP, which the Thunder said has a typical timetable of 6-8 weeks, has several important ramifications for Oklahoma City and the NBA. Let's take a look at what Durant's absence might mean.
1. Durant's injury will cost the Thunder approximately 2-3 wins.
Both my SCHOENE projection system and a projection built on ESPN's real plus-minus estimate Oklahoma City's average win total dropping between two and three wins after accounting for Durant's injury. That seems like a reasonable guess, presuming Durant is able to return within 6-8 weeks, which would translate to something in the range of 15-20 games missed.
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