College Football Playoff Championship 2015: Date, Schedule, Latest Predictions
There are still a few weeks to go before the College Football Playoff games kick off, but Saturday is the final day for the teams still fighting for a spot to make a case to the selection committee. The final standings will be released on Sunday, creating a sense of urgency that is new to college football.
While there will be three games that compromise the College Football Playoff, starting with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on January 1, our focus is on the actual championship game. Instead of looking at the final four, why not go one step ahead to the final two?
This is the first time that more than two teams will have a chance to fight over the biggest prize in college football, so no one knows what to expect. The selection committee has been figuring things out as it goes, and four teams will have a chance to stake their claim as the best in the sport.
College Football Playoff Championship Schedule
Date: January 12, 2015
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPN
Latest Playoff Rankings Championship Game Predictions
The College Football Playoff has worked out perfectly in terms of drama, as each team in the Top Four plays a game this weekend. Oregon actually played Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night, but Alabama, TCU and Florida State are in action on Saturday.
Of those three teams, TCU has the easiest game against an Iowa State team that's winless in Big 12 play. Florida State has the most difficult game, based on the rankings, against No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
Based on how each of these teams is playing right now, as well as their matchups, Alabama and TCU seem like the safest bet to maintain their positions. In fact, based on projections from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, those two teams had the highest percentage chance of getting in the playoff:
However, Silver also notes that Alabama still has a good chance of staying in the Top Four with a loss to Missouri in the SEC Championship Game because of its conference:
The dangerous case for Alabama is if it loses while the rest of the top five - Oregon, TCU, Florida State and Ohio State - win. That scenario would be a nightmare for the committee; it would either have to deny the SEC a slot in the playoff (Missouri and Mississippi State have almost no chance) or bypass a one-loss conference champion such as Ohio State for two-loss Alabama.
Since Alabama doesn't seem likely to lose against Missouri-with respect to the Tigers-it will be in. At that point, the Crimson Tide are looking at a game against a team like Florida State, Ohio State or Baylor.
The Seminoles and Buckeyes don't seem to provide much of a challenge for Nick Saban's defense. Florida State may be undefeated, but quarterback Jameis Winston has been awful with 17 interceptions, including at least one in six straight games.
Winston might be able to get away with that against teams like Florida, Notre Dame and Louisville, but Alabama is a different animal entirely.
Ohio State, while not as inconsistent as Florida State, has to deal with breaking in a new quarterback at the worst possible time. Even if Cardale Jones helps lead the Buckeyes to a win over Wisconsin, he will be going up against a different animal entirely when Saban's defense gets a crack at him.
Baylor is an interesting option in the semifinals because Alabama struggled mightily on defense against an Auburn team that spreads the field. Saban infamously supported the proposed rule change that was shot down in which teams would have had to wait 10 seconds between plays to allow substitutions.
While Saban cited player safety as the reason, the cynical take is that he was simply trying to help himself because Alabama has struggled to defend those open offenses. Baylor leads the nation in scoring offense at 49.8 points per game.
That's not enough to call for a Baylor upset if the matchup happens, but the Bears have the formula to give Alabama problems.
Bottom line with the Crimson Tide, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info, is that they are simply the best team in the sport right now:
FPI would give Alabama best chance (34.5%) to win national title among the Top-4 teams in College Football Playoff http://t.co/TncrzZeB2B
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 3, 2014
The other team in the College Football Playoff Championship isn't as complex to figure out. The selection committee seems to love TCU, bumping the Horned Frogs over an undefeated Florida State team and three spots ahead of a Baylor team that beat them earlier this season.
Oregon has been securely in the playoff for weeks, bouncing back nicely from a loss against Arizona earlier in the year. More importantly than just winning the rest of their games, the Ducks have gotten better as the season has gone on.
The offensive line was Oregon's Achilles' heel, as Arizona exploited in that 31-24 win with seven sacks of quarterback Marcus Mariota, but Paul Myerberg of USA Today noted the Heisman Trophy contender was only sacked 14 times in the next seven games after that defeat.
Assuming Oregon and TCU maintain their current spots for a matchup in the Rose Bowl, the Ducks get the edge in a head-to-head battle because they have the better quarterback and have proved themselves against better competition with wins over Michigan State and Arizona.
Per this stat from ESPN's Chris Fowler, Mariota was able to conquer his white whale in the Pac-12 Championship Game:
From ESPN Stats: Marcus Mariota has 3 multi turnover games vs Arizona. Has 3 against all other Pac12 teams COMBINED.
- Chris Fowler (@cbfowler) December 4, 2014
Now imagine what Mariota will do against a TCU defense that allowed 61 points against Baylor and struggled against Kansas. It should be a blast to watch these two offenses do work, but the Ducks have been battle-tested against better competition and should prevail in this spot.
This leaves us with a showdown between Alabama and Oregon for the national championship, which seems only fitting since they appear to be the two best teams in college football.
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